Navegando por Orientadores "MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Avaliação monetária dos prejuízos causados por chuvas intensas nas cidades de Belém do Pará, Brasil e Carrillo de Guanacaste, Costa Rica
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-12-22) ROSALES MENDOZA, Ronaldo; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
The direct material losses of the residents of the cities of Belém do Pará, Brazil and Carrillo de Guanacaste, Costa Rica in the period 2000-2016 it´s evaluated due to extreme rainfall. Using the method of abduction and using dates of INMET, INM, IBGE, INEC, the natural, social and economic condition of the residents of the affected areas was identified, which served as the basis for the calculation. Constructed the water footprint index (Ipa) and the Environmental Average Material Monetary Assessment (AMA) the equation estimate loss after knowing the precipitation data of the event day. The monetary evaluation of the extreme event happened in the city of Belém on January 4, 2017, the INMET reported rainfall was 94.6 mm, and estimated water footprint reached 0.90 meters high, the loss estimated for the city was 122,106,834 Reference Monetary Units (UMR). In the city of Carrillo was evaluated the event of October 5, 2017, the rainfall reported by INM was 148.6 mm, the water footprint was 2.1 meters high, the estimated loss for neighborhood residents Bamboo is 3,094,579 UMR. Then, the index as the applied equation show effective for the calculation of the direct material monetary damages in the area reached after an extreme precipitation event. Limiting the calculation of the loss suffered by the population in vulnerable condition and without evaluating other related factors such as permanence, force and speed of water; the value of intangibles (interruption of services, illnesses) in both the affected area and the impact areas. In spite of this, the result is used to make preventive, corrective, and operative actions in a city.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Caracterização de regimes de umidade em regiões tropicais: comparação entre floresta e savana
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2008-08-11) SILVA, Ludmila Monteiro da; SÁ, Leonardo Deane de Abreu; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0107976161469463; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
This study aims to investigate a method to classify humidity regimes based on different "states" characterization of the Tropical Atmospheric Boundary Layer (TABL), both above a forest area and above a savanna area, according with the methodology proposed by Mahrt (1991). Starting this classification, an improvement is performed while incorporates both the analysis of the thermodynamic stability of TABL for a forest area and the variation in Convection Available Potential Energy (CAPE). In these analyses, radiosonde data and data from micrometeorological towers obtained during field experiments have been used, collected during the less rainy period in each area. For the forest area (Caxiuanã) data from the COBRAPARÁ experiment were used (spanning the period from 06 to 13/11 of 2006), while for the savanna area (Daly Waters) data from the “KOORIN” experiment were used (spanning the period from 15/07 to 13/08 of 1974, in Australia). The comparison of humidity regimes of each area suggests that, should the Amazon rainforest be replaced with savanna, this would result in a drier atmosphere, with most of the energy used for the heating of that atmosphere, reduced evapotranspiration, decreased precipitation and the inexistence of CAPE. On the other hand, the analysis of the stability of the atmosphere in Caxiuanã showed that, contrary to observations in the Western Amazon, during the COBRA-PARÁ Experiment, the largest values of CAPE occurred at 18:00 local time due to the humidity convergence that occurs in the bay of Caxiuanã through the land-breeze circulation, indicating that in that area the maximum values of CAPE were associated predominantly with the humidity fields and not with temperature. Under such a “disturbed” TABL conditions, the phase space proposed by Mahrt (1991) doesn’t characterize well moisture regimes associated with great CAPE values.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Estudo dos potenciais impactos das mudanças climáticas e de alterações na cobertura vegetal nos recursos hídricos na Região Central da Amazônia
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2008-01-31) SILVA, Flérida Seixas Moreno da; CÂNDIDO, Luiz Antonio; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7705103746743754; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
This research focused on evaluating and quantifying the impacts in water availability in Amazônia Central Region, due to possible climatic change and land use changes, through a numerical modeling experiment using the Common Land Model (CLM) biosphere model, in off line mode. The results of 9 Ocean-Amosphere Copled Models and 3 climatic change scenarios from IPCC – AR4 was used, in order to establish the basin of climatic forcing of CLM model. It was also used the deforestation dynamic scenario in the case of business as usual, predicted for each year of 2001-2050 period. Thus, draining basin of Rio Cuieiras on Amazônia Central was considered. From the results of the models, the uncertainties of projections relative to precipitation and temperature, was analyzed for each simulations, considering the variability between the models and the CO2 emission scenario; as well as modifications in water and energy balance components associated to variations on forest cover and its substitution for pasture. The results indicate that, in the case of a scenario of climate change witch leads in a persistent decrease (increase) on annual mean rainfall, both runoff and water storage in soil will be directly affected. About modification in cover, the water and energy balance components was strongly affected by substitution of forest by pasture, showing decrease in evapotranspiration and increase on soil water storage and in total runoff.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Frequência de precipitação e impactos decorrentes associados à chuva na cidade de Belém-PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2014-12-18) SANTOS, Josiane Sarmento dos; PIMENTEL, Márcia Aparecida da Silva; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3994635795557609; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
The objective of this study was to analyze the frequency of severe precipitation (PRP) to verify the impacts caused by severe precipitation in the city and population of Belém-Pará, Brazil, in the 30-year period between 1984 and 2013. For that, it was identified the possibility of occurrence of humidity convection through a Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) analysis. We used data from of DTCEA's radiosonde; analysis of the frequency of the precipitation (PRP), and occurrence of extreme precipitation events (EEPRP), precipitation measurements from the INMET’s stations. IBGE's demographic census, in the period of 1980 the 2010; and news articles from the main city's newspapers (between 1984 and 2013), and ready to overflow detected by the Civil Defense in Pará (PADCP). The CAPE is analyzed by reference values, which have associated conditions, and ranges in this study: a) CAPE less than 1000 J / kg, b) CAPE greater than or equal to 2500 and less than 1000 J / kg C) CAPE greater than or equal to 2500 and less than 4000 J / kg d) CAPE greater than or equal to 4000 J / kg, respectively CAPE were classifications 1, 2, 3 and 4. Growth trends (T) in the PRP and the EEPRP were observe, which were associates to the larger frequency of La Niña events. We observed that the local atmosphere presented favorable conditions for the development of deep humidity convection, as CAPE values higher than 1000 J/Kg (the limit for convective cloud formation), were the most frequent, being 65% of all radiosonde measurements. CAPE 2 and 3 classifications presented significant growth tendencies across the years, whereas CAPE 1 and 4 showed reduction. This is probably due to the increased of air temperature at the site, which has an impact on CAPE values. The results also did show the existence of a positive trend and correlation between population growth and increase of PRP, i.e., greater number of people are being affected, mainly due to the occurrence of EEPRP and PRP. The main problem facing the city and society quantified through the NJL, are overflow. The most susceptible neighborhoods to increased PRP and EEPRP were often NJL and detected by PADCP are: Agulha, Cremação, Guamá, Jurunas, Cidade Velha, Campina, Reduto, Marco, Pedreira, Canudos, Terra Firme, Curió Utinga e Fátima. It was observed that the overflows are not restricted to social classes with lower purchasing power, that because the city has deficiency and inefficiency of urban infrastructure, as well as a precarious sewage and draining systems.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
A influência do crescimento urbano na variação de temperatura no bairro de Val-de-Cans em Belém-PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2015-03-23) MONTEIRO, Luciana Danielle Antunes; ADAMI, Marcos; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7484071887086439; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
These days, global, regional and local climatic changes represent one of the biggest concerns for humanity. Studies indicate that these changes can due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. The air temperature is one of the meteorological variables modified by it. This study aims to analyze the hourly variation of air temperature and dew point over 31 years, in the region located around the Belem International Airport. Air temperature and dew point hourly data were used and analyzed by period: I (1975-1984), II (1985-1994) and III (2003-2013). The 1995-2002 period was not made available for this study. The data analyses were carried out using hourly, monthly and yearly air temperature and dew point averages for each period. In the maximum and minimum daily temperatures, the Morlet Wavelet Technique was used to check the signal where temperatures have greater variability. In addition, satellite images for the years 1985 and 2013 were used to identify the percentage of green urban areas and Land surface temperature (LST) and the Effective Temperature Index (ET) for the thermal comfort analysis, both in the Val-de-Cans region. Over these periods, we could notice an increase of 0,4°C in the maximum temperature analysis and 0,9°C in the minimum temperature one. The daily maximum and minimum temperature presented intensity in the signal in the annual cycle which can be related to annual scale natural events that influence their own variation. We also verified that there was a reduction of about 665,7 hectares in green areas in the Val-de-Cans region, during 29 years. The results also showed a lower surface temperature in 1985 than in 2013. In 2013, we observed that as the urban areas increased, the green urban areas decreased, consequently increasing the heated areas. Through the Effective Temperature Index, we could verify the maximum values of TE in period III, in other words, thermic stress which is likely to have an impact on quality of life of human population and biodiversity. The thermal behavior seemed effectively influenced by the urbanization process.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Influências das condições termodinâmicas nos eventos extremos de precipitação na cidade de Belém e região metropolitana
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2012-06-28) GILLE, Felipe do Souto de Sá; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
The goal of this dissertation is to verify the importance of thermodynamic factors on occurrence of extreme precipitation events in the city of Belém (PA) and the metropolitan area, during the period of August 2008 to December 2009. To this end, precipitation and radiosonde data were used. For dynamic and thermodynamic analysis, satellite images, surface charts and SKEW T-LOG P diagram were used. The study of thermodynamics of the atmosphere was made based on the theories of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition Energy (CINE). The decis method was used to classify the extreme precipitation events, in order to associate them to the values of CAPE and CINE and then verify the accuracy of these values when the extreme event occur. At this occasion, it was verified that the studied region has strong connective activity during all the year, hence the monthly mean values are between 900 J/kg and 1900 J/kg. It was also verified that not always high CAPE and low CINE determine precipitation. That situation in fact determine profound convection, but to ensure precipitation there is the need of dynamic enforcement. The results clearly show that when the precipitation process depended on CAPE exclusively, it was necessary to have a high value in order to generate profound convection and, consequently, precipitation. Otherwise, at the dynamic contribution precipitation process it was not necessary a significant value of CAPE, in that case not over 1000 J/kg. The CINE was always lower at the rainy season showing monthly mean values lower than 300 J/kg. That doesn’t means that as lower the CINE, higher is the precipitation. When inhibition is present, the instability keep growing during the day, and with that, clouds with accentuated vertical development, then the points where were the inhibitors weaken first, will be the preferential point to start the storm. From this, when the instability is high and the inhibitor mechanism exists (CINE) , in a large area, the most propitious place to trigger a storm are the points where CINE and NCE start to diminish and the thermic inversion, that sometimes happens, start to be broken. During this research it was clear that for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the rainy season there is the need of ITCZ influence and during the dry season the dynamic factor that contributes is the Instability Line (LI).
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Interação das variáveis climáticas e ambientais na formação de microclimas em ambientes urbanos e rurais do Nordeste Paraense.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-04-30) PFEIFF, Greicy Kelly; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0594-0187; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0452-8828
Globalization has led to an increase in rural exodus over the past few decades. This process caused the crowding of people in large and small cities. These changes associated with land use triggered the appearance of microclimates in urban areas. In this context, the objective of the research was to evaluate the climatic and environmental conditions of the municipalities of Colares, São Caetano de Odivelas, Santo Antônio do Tauá, and Vigia that make up a mesoregion of the Northeast of Pará. Data on land use and land cover change from the MapBiomas project, AQUA / TERRA satellite images from the MODIS sensor, and from the Landsat 5 TM and 8 OLI / TIRS were used with the help of the Google Earth Engine platform to estimate the rates of vegetation, land surface temperature and surface heat islands between 1990 and 2020. Observed data on air temperature, relative humidity and were collected in the project “Understanding the regional climate variability in Northeast Paraense” from January to December 2010. The results showed an increase in population in the four municipalities from 1990 to 2020, which triggered the reduction of several factors such as the natural vegetation and quality of vegetation fragments. In addition, the population growth promoted the increase of surface temperature and surface heat island formation. The air temperature varied throughout the year, but the ability to present a heterogeneous behavior characterized by the rainy and less rainy period. The thermal comfort index was classified as partially comfortable in rural areas and uncomfortable in urban areas. It was possible to conclude that the urban microclimate has changed in the last 30 years. In addition, climate change can promote the intensification of these changes. Thus, the analysis of meteorological and environmental variables in an interdisciplinary way can assist in managing the landscape of the municipalities to mitigate the effects of heat islands and maintain the quality of life of the population.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Tempestades severas na Região Metropolitana de Belém: avaliação das condições termodinâmicas e impactos sócio-econômicos
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2009-04-17) TAVARES, João Paulo Nardin; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240
The region of Belém, capital of the state of Pará, is a location vulnerable to the impact of storms during the year. The heavy rains bring problems to the population, as the flooding of streets and houses, disruption in the power supply and telecommunications, health problems, transportation, and in some cases, even death. This research sought to answer the following questions: What are the mechanisms that cause extreme events of precipitation in the rainy season and dry season? Are the thermodynamic instability indexes appropriated for predicting storms and heavy rain in the region? Is the effect of "Heat Island" affecting the convection in the city, causing an increase in the number and intensity of storms? What is the behavior of extreme events in years of El Niño and La Niña? What are the main social-economic impacts from the storms? Studying basically a time series of daily rainfall, data from soundings and reports published in local newspapers about the damage caused by storms, is that we tried to answer such questions. The results show that, in general, the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for extreme events in the dry season is greater than in rainy season, because the precipitation in the dry season is very much dependent on the thermodynamic forcing, then, to occur, there must be forcing of a mesoscale (instability line) and the CAPE and the indexes of instability must be very high. In the rainy season extreme precipitation is caused by the interaction between scales, the forcing dynamics (intertropical convergence zone) and thermodynamic forcing, in some cases into the interaction of the mesoscale forcings. The results are huge losses to the population. The data analysis of soundings shows that the indexes of instability are suitable for the rainy season and should be changed to the dry season, but may provide a subsidy for development of regional models, and when analyzed together with CAPE, satellite images and observations of wind field, makes possible the forecast of severe storms, helping decision-makers bodies.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Valoração de danos de inundações em três capitais da Amazônia brasileira.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2022-02-17) MOREIRA, Amanda Melo; MOTA, Maria Aurora Santos da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5817549281617240; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0452-8828
The Amazon region presents high levels of precipitation, with intense events that might be a problem in cities that are not able to deal with it. Amongst Amazon’s most rainy capitals (Manaus – AM, Macapá – AP and Belém – PA), Extreme Events of Precipitation – EEP are common and cause damage to the population exposed to inundations. The losses might be presented in different types and causa disturbances to society’s life quality. To analyze negative impacts caused by this problem might help on the decision-making process about investments that will bring improvements to those cities’ inhabitants. The occurrence of EEP was checked by doing a research between National Meteorology Institute – INMET and news registered on the local media, to estimate the losses on the cities. With that data, a value was estimated that represents the damages caused by inundations in houses located on slum areas, using the Water Footprint Index – IPA and the Environmental Average Material Monetary Assessment – AMA methodology. For the period between 1999 and 2018, 31 events were found in Manaus, 15 in Macapá and 26 in Belém, all of them strongly influenced by Intertropical Convergence Zone – ITCZ and by El Niño Southern Oscillation - ENOS. In each city was measured the accumulation of water after rainfall, in order to calculate IPA, which resulted in a value of 0,001681, that was used to calculate AMA for each city. Then, the value of losses was estimated on R$19 billion for Manaus, R$ 2 billion for Macapá and R$42 billion for Belém. It is important to emphasize that those values represent only 1% of the most extreme precipitations and considers only residences located on slum areas, where most of its families have a maximum income of one (1) minimum wage. Therefore, the methodology of IPA and AMA damage assessment is relevant, for it serves as an indicative of the population’s losses, focusing on the portion that has lower purchasing power and lives on areas that usually have infrastructure deficiencies. Hence studies alike are needed since they draw attention to the society’s problems with inundations.