Navegando por Orientadores "SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise da variabilidade espaço-temporal da precipitação e focos de calor em vegetação na ilha Hispaniola.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2020-08-07) PRÉVOIR, Ermano; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0594-0187; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Insular or island countries located in Central America and the Caribbean are vulnerable to variability and climate change. This work presents a contribution to climatological studies, particularly of the Hispaniola Antilles of the Caribbean Sea, formed by the countries of the Republic of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, covering an area of 78 thousand km². Based on the analysis of precipitation from the CHIRPS base with high spatial resolution, a bimodal climate pattern was found in Haiti and the Dominican Republic with the first rainfall peak occurring in May and the second in September/October. The dry regime occurs from January to March. The spatial patterns of the climatological maps and the correlation analysis indicated that the seasonal precipitation regimes of the Antilles are directly influenced by the configuration of the SST and the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea over the Atlantic Ocean, with the main maximum of the second semester being explained by the presence warmer TSM (above 29C) and by the cloudiness band associated with ITCZ during its most boreal position. The quantitative assessment of the correlations (simultaneous and lagged) between rainfall data and vegetation indexes and vegetation fires, as well as the integrated analysis of the mapping of these variables over the Hispaniola territory, allowed to establish consistent relationships in the dynamics of climate, vegetation and fires. Dominican Republic has much higher numbers of fires when compared to those in Haiti, with the highest frequency of events taking place from January to April, when the dry regime over the Antilles prevails. Conversely, during peak rainfall in the second half of the year, fires are minimal and are concentrated in the months from August to December. As for the vegetation indices, there is a certain direct relationship with the climatic regime, so that the higher NDVI are observed into regions containing maximum precipitation and vice versa.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise de tendências de variáveis hidroclimáticas na bacia hidrográfica Araguaia-Tocantins e suas implicações na agricultura irrigada
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2019-02-28) SALAME, Camil Wadih; BARBOSA, Joaquim Carlos; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
The Araguaia-Tocantins Hydrographic Basin (BHAT) is the most extensive in drainage area within the Brazilian territory, with processes of use and occupation increasing in terms of the demands of agribusiness and mineral exploration. In this research, a statistical study was carried out on the hydroclimatic trends (precipitation and flow) in BHAT and its relations with irrigated agriculture. The hydroclimatic mapping based on cluster analysis identified four homogeneous regions within the BHAT, two to the north with a predominance of high rainfall/flow rates and less water availability. In the BHTA the rainy regime occurs between December to March and the dry regime between May and September. The months of October/November (dry to rainy) and April (rainy to dry) are transitional penods with pronounced variations in the seasonal cycle. The geostatistical study of rainfall/river flow forecast revealed that the results using the Box-Jenkings model are relatively better when compared to the Artificial Neural Networks model. The integrated approach of hydroclimatic variables with agricultural data within the BHTA revealed a significant pattern of negative trends in rainfall and flows that are spatially consistent in regions of intense productivity of com and soybeans and cattle. A relevant result was the detection of a significant spatial correlation between the number of central pivots (irrigation) in regions with low water availability, which favor the productivity of temporary crops.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Aplicações de GNSS meteorologia: estudos de caso de eventos extremos de precipitação no Rio de Janeiro e Belém.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2024-06-18) MOTA, Galdino Viana; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Extreme rainfall events, concurrently triggered with floods, waterlogging and landslides, are temporally related to variations in zenith total delay (ZTD) and integrated water vapor (IWV) from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology. The relationship between ZTD/IWV variations and precipitation was investigated in this work, using means, time series, and case studies of extreme events in Rio de Janeiro between 2015 and 2018, and in Belém between 2010 and 2022. The GNSS data are from the International GNSS Monitoring and Assessment System (iGMAS) and the Brazilian Continuous Monitoring Network (RBMC), while the precipitation data come from the Rio de Janeiro City Hall Alert System (Alerta Rio), the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and the Vale Technology Institute (ITV). In the composition of the ZTD/IWV and precipitation time series in Rio de Janeiro, quasi-linear ramps followed by nonlinear ramps were identified, with the highest rates of change and ZTD/IWV peaks occurring, respectively, 1–2 hours and 0.5 hours before the precipitation maxima, predominantly between 18:00 and 00:00 local time (LT). Case studies of extreme precipitation events during the rainy season revealed configurations in ZTD/IWV curves in the shape of: (i) oscillations named ‘asymmetric semisinusoid’ lasting 3–5 hours, formed by rapid vespertine growth in non-linear ramps, with an average rate of change at the inflection point of +11 (1.4) mm [15min]–1; (ii) a jump with an average rate of change of +17.3 (+2.66) mm [15min]–1 and a maximum of +21.3 (+3.33) mm [15min]–1; (iii) elongated ramps and oscillations named ‘bumps’ that were sequentially staggered on the ascending ramps lasting 1–2 hours; and (iv) ‘bumps’ or ascending ramps in already elevated values of ZTD/IWV due to the influence of meteorological systems such as the Humidity Convergence Zone (in Portuguese Zona de Convergência de Umidade, ZCOU) or the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) (in Portuguese Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul, ZCAS). Events with large volumes of rainfall were identified, resulting in the elevation of river, igarapé, and canal levels, causing flooding in various locations in Belém. Three events occurred during the less rainy season with very heavy rainfall from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), and others during the rainy season under the main influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ZTD curves showed non-linear variations before and after significant rainfall events, with quasi-linear ascending ramps and peaks followed by descending ramps. As the events approached, the curves exhibited a ‘ZTD jumps’ configuration, with sudden increases preceding heavy rainfall or occurring in multiple jumps during intense rain events over several hours. However, some ZTD/IWV curves showed semisinusoid, bump, or jump configurations without resulting in precipitation, highlighting the existence of false alarms. Installing meteorological stations alongside GNSS stations to measure at least precipitation, pressure, temperature, and relative humidity with a 5-minute resolution is essential for monitoring extreme weather events. It is recommended to expand the analyses to longer periods, identify significant configurations in ZTD and IWV time series, define critical thresholds, and use advanced and more complex techniques such as neural networks, wavelet analysis for ZTD/IWV time series, or tropospheric tomography. These approaches are essential to improve the prediction of severe precipitation events, prevent and mitigate the impacts of adverse meteorological phenomena, ensure safety, and provide adequate infrastructure in affected areas.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Aspectos regionais da variabilidade de precipitação no estado do Pará: estudo observacional e modelagem climática em alta resolução
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2009) LOPES, Marcio Nirlando Gomes; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
The objective of the present work was to join different networks of surface weather stations to build a new integrated database, which it was generated a recent precipitation climatology (1978-2007) for the Pará state in high spatial resolution - 30 km, allowing better to identify the regional climatic variability that is influenced by the physiography aspects as well as large-scale climatic mechanisms of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. In addition, it was established an optimized configuration of the regional climatic model RegCM3 using two different cumulus parametrizations: RegCM3/Grell and RegCM3/MIT. 26 simulations (1982/83 to 2007/08) during the rainy season in Eastern Amazon (December to May) for each scheme of convective parametrization, using 30 km of space resolution, were generated. The results showed that the model is able to capture anomaly rainfall signs in the presence of extreme climatic forcing, as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic dipole phases. RegCM3/MIT obtained better skill in the central region (Altamira) and reasonable performance in the Northeast (Belém), East (Marabá), Southeast (Conceição do Araguaia), and Northwest (Tiriós) sections over Pará state. RegCM3/Grell obtained reasonable skill in the Northeast, East, Southeast and Northwest areas. The North section (Macapá) was the most problematic region, with little or no sensibility presented by the model. Although RegCM3 has obtained reasonable results in most of the domain, systematic errors were detected in the regional simulations, overall those related to dry bias for RegCM3/Grell and wet bias for RegCM3/MIT in the South portion and dry bias in the North portion. These founding‟s denote the need of convection schemes adjustments to the regional conditions in eastern Amazon.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
O aterro sanitário de Marituba: estimativa e dispersão das emissões de biogás e a percepção da mudança da qualidade do ar pela população do entorno.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2019-02-18) MACHUCA ESPÍRITU, José Guillermo; IMBIRIBA, Breno Cesar de Oliveira; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7979656297541988; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Urban Solid Waste in landfills and dumps is an important anthropogenic source of Greenhouse Gases, mainly Methane (CH4), which has a high capacity of retaining heat in the atmosphere. At the Marituba Solid Waste Processing and Processing Center (SWPPC) located in the Metropolitan Region of Belém, Pará, current and future methane generation from the year 2015 were estimated through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model considering a minimum operation period of 15 years. The landfill will generate during its history approximately 610 thousand metric tons of CH4, of which approximately 95% will be produced in the coming years. Considering the global warming potential of methane that is 28 times higher than carbon dioxide (CO2) over the years, this will generate an amount equivalent to 17 million tons of carbon dioxide. The dispersion of methane gas as a tracer of other gases and odors generated at CPTR Marituba using a Gaussian dispersion model shows that at night time (18:00-06:00) gas accumulation is higher at the area surrounding the landfill and causes discomfort in the population, validating this information with the results of the interviews with the residents of the surrounding area of the municipalities of Ananindeua and Marituba, who suffer the greatest annoyances due to the bad odors in this same nocturnal period. The results of this research should be considered in the definition of public policies for the location of new landfills and in the implementation of actions to mitigate the negative impact of existing landfills. Despite the relevance of the topic addressed in this study, studies on the generation and dispersion of gases as well as the impact on the surrounding population in landfills in the Amazon Region are scarce in the literature, so this work will add to the understanding about landfills and its impacts on the Amazon as well as the use of biogas.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Conservação do Jaborandi (Pilocarpus microphyllusStapf Ex Wardleworth) no Norte do Brasil: diversidade genética e impactos das mudanças climáticas futuras
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2023-05-31) CORRÊA, Waléria Pereira Monteiro; CALDEIRA JUNIOR, Cecílio Frois; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4071467514868919; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4762-3515; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Jaborandi (Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf Ex Wardleworth) is a medicinal plant found in the north/northeast of Brazil. In recent decades, disordered extractive exploitation, the advance of agriculture and other activities that result in deforestation, as well as ongoing climate changes, have induced direct and indirect impacts on the survival of this plant species. Jaborandi is a natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used in the pharmaceutical industry to treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Therefore, the species is socio-environmental interest because the extractivism of its leaves has generated financial income for countless families, in addition to contributing to the conservation of the species in the region. In order to contribute to long-term conservation and survival strategies for the species, this study evaluated the structure and genetic diversity of the species P. microphyllus in a Conservation Unit (UC) in southeastern Pará (FLONA Carajás), as well as an environmental modeling study was developed to analyze the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of occurrence of jaborandi, in order to delineate suitable areas according to future climate scenarios. The results of the genetic study demonstrated the formation of 04 populations with high diversity and ecological structure, even with continuous extractivism within the Carajás FLONA, indicating that exploration has been taking place in a sustainable manner in the region. In the modeling study, the projections indicated impacts of climate change on the distribution of P. microphyllus with a reduction in suitable areas in the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes (Maranhão and Piauí) and expansion of the species in the protected areas of forest cover of the Amazon biome in southeastern Pará. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of diversity in the FLONA of Carajás and reinforce the need for management and conservation plans for P. microphyllus in priority areas, where the species finds favorable climatic conditions in future scenarios. In situ and ex situ conservation measures for this species are essential, since extracting the leaves contributes as a source of income for local communities.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Dinâmica da urbanização na região metropolitana de Belém e mudanças nos regimes sazonais durante o clima atual e futuro num cenário amazônico.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2022-04-29) GUTIERREZ, Carlos Benedito Barreiros; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
The intense and systematic process of urban population densification and vegetation suppression, a characteristic of anthropic transformations, can trigger several changes not only in the geographic space, but also in the regional climate, thus yelding impacts on social and environmental dimensions. The main objective of this study is to quantify the spatial/temporal dynamics of changes in the surface cover of the Metropolitan Region of Belém (RMB), in eastern Amazon, with a focus on urbanization, during the last four decades, including analysis of the effects/impacts on the seasonal regimes of the rainy (January to April) and dry (July to November) regimes. In addition, a Downscaling study was performed using the regional model RegCM4 to generate future climate projections (next two decades) for the RMB associated with the impacts of global climate change. To achieve the proposed objectives, the study made use of demographic data from the IBGE, mapping by remote sensing with the application of physical indices to identify land use and cover changes, environmental data extracted from the MapBiomas platform and several in situ (station) and satellite (CRU, CHIRPS and CMORPH) climate databases. Statistical methods and quantitative analyzes were used in these databases. The results obtained in the independent study of multitemporal mapping by remote sensing, corroborated by the MapBiomas data, revealed major transformations over the regional landscape of the RMB in the last decades. Among the main evidences found, we can report: urban expansion conditioned a warmer climate in the city of Belém; in the RMB, the vegetation suppression led to the expansion of pasture/agriculture areas, whose environmental changes explained the trend of monotonic increase in air temperature in both seasonal regimes; Belém and RMB present trends of systematic intensification of the rainy regime. The projections generated by RegCM4 (considering the RCP8.5 scenario that is the most extreme of global warming) indicate that regional patterns of future climate in Belém and RMB will be affected by global climate change. Future climate simulations (next 25 years, 2021 to 2045) in relation to current climate data (last 35 years, 1986 to 2020) indicate that warmer urban climate conditions are expected to persist in the coming decades, with an increase in air temperature of 1.5ºC in the RMB and 1.3ºC in Belém for the dry regime and 1ºC in the RMB and 0.9ºC in Belém for the rainy regime. There are indications of continuation of the positive trend of the rainy regime with an increase in precipitation of about 25% in the RMB and 14% in Belém. Finally, it appears that the availability of satellite images, observational climate data bases and time series of meteorological data, associated with image geoprocessing techniques, advances in modeling science and computational technologies to perform downscaling with RegCM4, make possible the continuous monitoring and integrated investigation of the urban geographic space and seasonal climate pattern, whose scientific results are relevant to support the planning and decision-making of municipal environmental management and the elaboration of public policies for the benefit of society.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Dinâmica de transmissão da malária na Amazônia Legal: determinantes ambientais, epidemiológicos e sua distribuição espaço-temporal
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-04-20) PARENTE, Andressa Tavares; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Malaria is a worldwide parasite, concentrating mainly in tropical and subtropical locations. In Brazil, in the Legal Amazon region, it is characterized as an endemic disease, and it is responsible for more than 99% of the cases in the Nation. Its presence in the region has a multifactorial character, such as socioeconomic, demographic and environmental influences, and also some variables such as temperature, precipitation and deforestation. All of them influence the dynamics of the disease. The aim of this study was to comprehend the dynamics of malaria transmission in the Legal Amazon and the nine States that comprise of this region (Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins), establishing relations between the endemic indicators and the regional climate variability and deforestation rates. This study has 5 chapters. The first chapter contains the introduction, where there is the conceptualization of the theme and of the variables that are analyzed in the study, objective and the presentation of the structure of the following chapters. The second chapter talks about the analysis of the Plan of Intensification of Malaria Control Actions (PIACM) in the Legal Amazon, based in secondary data about malaria in the Legal Amazon from 1981 to 2015, and from 1990 to 2012 (by States). It was developed an intervention analysis model in time series with the use of dummy variables that established the Annual Parasite Index (API) average of occurrence before and after the intervention. The average API (after the intervention) had a 48% reduction between the averages from two time periods. Among the States the effect was differentiated, showing the highest impact in the reduction of Malaria in Mato-Grosso, Tocantins, Roraima and Maranhão. The third chapter analyzed the spatial dynamics of the incidence of malaria in the Legal Amazon, from 2003 to 2012, and its association with deforestation and precipitation using the spatial statistic techniques and also the local and global Moran’s index through the GeoDa Program. The global Moran’s index confirmed the spatial dependence for API, precipitation and deforestation among the States. It was identified the States that presented high priority (Acre, Amazonas and Roraima) and low priority (Maranhão, Tocantins and Pará) for the malaria intervention policies. The fourth chapter talked about the modulation of the precipitation and temperature over the incidence of malaria, in both current and in future climate scenarios, focusing on the seasonality, with different results for the States that are part of the Legal Amazon. The fifth chapter was based on the proposal of a model for malaria and quarterly variables involved in the study (precipitation, deforestation, SST of the oceans), and for the final model it was necessary to exclude the variable deforestation, being more significant for the model to utilize the other variables involved. The prevention policies expressed impacts on the series, which showed a decreasing tendency in the number of cases. The States exert influence among themselves on the pattern of Malaria occurrence, being the relations with the environmental variables differentiated in each State. The results indicate that the effects of the borders in the malaria cases in the western portion of the Legal Amazon has contributed to the values of this endemic disease. It is necessary to develop other strategies in order to control the management settings of malaria in the region and the allocation of resources to fight against this disease.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Estudo observacional sobre os eventos de seca meteorológica e hidrológica na região de Marabá-PA no sudeste da Amazônia Oriental
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2011) CHAVES, Patrícia Malcher; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
The objective of the present work is to investigate observational aspects of the meteorological and hydrological drought in the region of Marabá located in the southeast of Pará in eastern Amazon. We used precipitation and river stream monthly data for the 1971 to 2010 period. The meteorological drought events were selected from categories of the negative values based on methodology of the precipitation anomaly index-IAC. The hydrological drought events were selected from fluviometric data below normal based on standardized anomaly index. For the meteorological drought conditions, the events are concentrated mostly in the categories of Weak drought (FRA) and Moderate (MOD), with higher frequency of FRA events in February (38%), June (37%) and December (34%), while the MOD events are more frequent in August (39%), September (42%) and October (32%). For the hydrological drought events of the Tocantins River, the results show that the monthly occurrence of events is random and can be observed throughout the year, so that the duration of the events present no regularity over the period studied. The dynamic structure associated with meteorological and hydrological drought are related to a large-scale pattern of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific and warmer conditions in the tropical north Atlantic, whose large-scale ocean-atmospheric conditions present intensification in both the atmospheric descending branch of the zonal Walker cell and meridional Hadley cell, which induce significant inhibition of tropical convective activity, thus explaining the occurrence of drought events in the region. Furthermore, it was analyzed the relationship between the drought events and vegetation fires (burning) points in the Marabá region during years 2000 to 2009, and the correlation of around 43% confirms the synergy between drought and fire, ie, the forest becomes more flammable under conditions of hydric deficit.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Eventos extremos da zona de convergência intertropical sobre o Atlântico durante o período chuvoso da Amazônia oriental
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2008) FERREIRA, Douglas Batista da Silva; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
This work reports an observational analysis of the climatological characteristics (period of 1985-2007) associated with the ITCZ extreme events, observed over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, establishing its influences on the pluviometric variability over eastern Amazon, during the months of February, March and April. These events were selected objectively through Empirical Orthogonal Functions analysis, and the ocean-atmosphere patterns associated with ITCZ events, as well as, its impacts on eastern Amazon rainfall, were investigated through monthly composites. The results showed some monthly differences in the dynamical pattern related to the 200 hPa atmospheric circulation and configuration of vertical tropospheric motion, associated with the equatorial Hadley cell. Basically, the dynamic structure of the ocean-atmosphere patterns observed in February, March and April, showed that the ITCZ is formed over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in a region of confluence between northeasterly and southerly winds that is coincident with areas of abnormally hotter SST, upward vertical air motion associated with the Hadley cell, and divergent outflow at high levels. The impacts of such events in the precipitation variability over the eastern Amazon, showed that the states affected by ITCZ are mainly Amapá, Pará and Maranhão. Additionally, it were reported some socio-environmental impacts (floods, falling trees, proliferation of diseases, among others) that occurred in the metropolitan area of Belém, associated with the occurrence of extreme weather events ITCZ selected in this work, associated to the presence of ITCZ over the region.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Exposição das florestas da Amazônia à velocidade das mudanças climáticas
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-02-19) AMARAL, Calil Torres; VIEIRA, Ima Célia Guimarães; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3761418169454490; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1233-318X; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate and, as a result, species must produce adaptive responses to survive. The redistribution of biodiversity is one of the most anticipated effects for tropical species, as they have narrow thermal niches that make them less able to adapt to new environmental conditions. Evidence has already been observed in many Amazonian taxonomic groups, however, it remains uncertain whether the species will be able to follow up future climate changes. The amazon is among the global regions most exposed to long distances to climates analogs and to the emergence of new climate conditions. Along with this, the advance of deforestation may restrict the amount of habitats favorable to the distribution of species in the future, in addition to impairing connectivity to areas with a similar climate. Protected areas (PAs) can contribute to the redistribution of Amazonian biodiversity as climate havens, representing an important connectivity strategy between present and future climates, but they may be insufficient, given the speed of climate change promoted by human activities. Climate velocities represent a method to quantify the rate at which species must change their distribution in order to preserve their current climatic adaptation characteristics. In this work, the speed of climate change in the Amazon biome is investigated, based on climatic analogues between the present and the future, from the directions of advancement (present-future) and retreat (future-present), emphasizing the network of PAs in the region. The median climatic velocity of these areas was compared with that of unprotected areas (UAs), in order to verify the effectiveness of PAs in maintaining favorable climatic conditions for the adaptation of species in future climate change scenarios. In addition, the climatic refuges of the Amazon biome were identified and the impact of deforestation on these areas was quantified. To achieve these objectives, data from annual air temperature and precipitation averages with a spatial resolution of 10 km were used, in order to describe the current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) mesoclimates. The results show that the effects of the recoil speed will be greater in magnitude and spatial extension. Despite this, the network of PAs will be less exposed to the impacts of the recoil speed than UAs - emphasizing the importance of these areas as a tool in conservation. In contrast, for impacts related to the speed of advancement, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than PAs - indicating that the current spatial layout of the PA network is still not the most suitable for minimizing the impacts of climate change. It was also found that climatic refuges occupy only 7% of the Amazon biome, and are distributed along the edges of the biogeographic limit. In just 12 years, deforestation has caused a loss of more than 5% of these areas. In view of this scenario, it is necessary to further limit the loss of forests and include climate refuges in the conservation agendas of the Amazon, in order to enhance the conservation of the biota of Amazonian forests under climate change scenarios.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Exposição das florestas da Amazônia à velocidade das mudanças climáticas
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-03-19) AMARAL, Calil Torres; VIEIRA, Ima Célia Guimarães; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3761418169454490; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1233-318X; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate and, as a result, species must produce adaptive responses to survive. The redistribution of biodiversity is one of the most anticipated effects for tropical species, as they have narrow thermal niches that make them less able to adapt to new environmental conditions. Evidence has already been observed in many Amazonian taxonomic groups, however, it remains uncertain whether the species will be able to follow up future climate changes. The amazon is among the global regions most exposed to long distances to climates analogs and to the emergence of new climate conditions. Along with this, the advance of deforestation may restrict the amount of habitats favorable to the distribution of species in the future, in addition to impairing connectivity to areas with a similar climate. Protected areas (PAs) can contribute to the redistribution of Amazonian biodiversity as climate havens, representing an important connectivity strategy between present and future climates, but they may be insufficient, given the speed of climate change promoted by human activities. Climate velocities represent a method to quantify the rate at which species must change their distribution in order to preserve their current climatic adaptation characteristics. In this work, the speed of climate change in the Amazon biome is investigated, based on climatic analogues between the present and the future, from the directions of advancement (present-future) and retreat (future-present), emphasizing the network of PAs in the region. The median climatic velocity of these areas was compared with that of unprotected areas (UAs), in order to verify the effectiveness of PAs in maintaining favorable climatic conditions for the adaptation of species in future climate change scenarios. In addition, the climatic refuges of the Amazon biome were identified and the impact of deforestation on these areas was quantified. To achieve these objectives, data from annual air temperature and precipitation averages with a spatial resolution of 10 km were used, in order to describe the current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) mesoclimates. The results show that the effects of the recoil speed will be greater in magnitude and spatial extension. Despite this, the network of PAs will be less exposed to the impacts of the recoil speed than UAs - emphasizing the importance of these areas as a tool in conservation. In contrast, for impacts related to the speed of advancement, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than PAs - indicating that the current spatial layout of the PA network is still not the most suitable for minimizing the impacts of climate change. It was also found that climatic refuges occupy only 7% of the Amazon biome, and are distributed along the edges of the biogeographic limit. In just 12 years, deforestation has caused a loss of more than 5% of these areas. In view of this scenario, it is necessary to further limit the loss of forests and include climate refuges in the conservation agendas of the Amazon, in order to enhance the conservation of the biota of Amazonian forests under climate change scenarios.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Fogo e queimadas: histórico, risco e calendário meteorológico na Amazônia Oriental.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2019-08-29) SODRÉ, Giordani Rafael Conceição; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
The use of fire as a way of cleaning the soil is widely inserted in the productive process of the Amazon, being one of the elements that drive the agricultural expansion in the region. This research aimed to analyze the general scenario of burning in the Amazon region in order to address the complexity that surrounds this theme, as it can be treated as a social problem, but with reflections on the climate issue. We analyzed the legal parameters of the use of fire in agricultural practices and a meteorological calendar was developed indicating when the environmental conditions are most favorable for the safer use of this practice. The results indicated that the current scenario of burning in the Amazon may be related to a combination of choices, how the issue of burning could have been addressed and how it actually was. Indicating that the main tools are aimed at combating the effects of burning and not its origin. He observed that tools such as the Fire Risk Index used by INPE have its reduced accuracy, because it considers only environmental variables, not including the action of man as a parameter, which limits the efficiency in anticipating the occurrence of a burn. Analysis of the latest research has pointed to the use of controlled fire as the most viable option for changing the current scenario, so the main approach of this research was to create a safe weather management calendar for field fire use. . The conclusion of this research shows that environmental education is the most effective way to combat the excessive use of burning, but this is an investment for the future. For the current scenario the creation of a burning calendar based on local monthly rainfall variability, allowing the burning to be performed at times more favorable to its unwanted propagation. Thus, the number of uncontrolled fires can be effectively reduced and biodiversity and economic losses can be reduced. This being the way to go while environmental education does not fulfill its role in changing this culture within the Amazon region.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Impactos dos anos climáticos extremos no rendimento da lavoura temporária de mandioca na região rural da metrópole de Belém – Pará
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-01-31) SOUZA, Paulo Fernando de Souza; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Extremes climatic patterns negatively impact agriculture in Brazil and, as a result, cause problems for rural communities that are highly dependent on natural resources, in particular the state of Pará. Therefore, it is of fundamental importance to study the cassava farming (Manihot esculenta Crantz) in face of future climatic risks, because Pará is the largest national producer. The objective of this study was to analyze the modulation of the climatic mechanisms of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans on the pluviometric regime considering the municipal scale of the Rural Region of the Metropolis of Belém (RRB), in northeastern Pará, as well as to detect the relations between precipitation and productivity or yield of temporary cassava farming from 1990 to 2014 (25 years), including the analysis of impacts of extreme climatic years. The work was divided into three parts: the first analyzed the influence of climatic extremes such as El Niño, La Niña, North and South Gradient on RRB precipitation, using the percentiles technique; In the second part, Spearman correlations were calculated between the precipitation and the cassava yield and the results showed an inhomogeneous behavior throughout the region, i.e., there are municipalities that respond directly or indirectly to the pluviometric regime. In this analysis, the annual precipitation showed a better relationship with cassava yield, whose planting system occurs at two moments during the year (summer and winter plantings). In the third part, the spatial data exploratory spatial analysis technique was applied, which revealed the need to consider the spatial component in the evaluation of the relations between regional climate x agriculture.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Incidência de malária no Estado do Pará e suas relações com a variabilidade climática regional
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2007-11-23) PARENTE, Andressa Tavares; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
The objective of the present work is to approach a diagnostic study on the malaria incidence in four different regions over the Pará state in the eastern Amazon, seeking its relationships with the regional climate variability, with the population growth and rates of deforestation. Time series containing 35 years of annual data (1970-2005) and 14 years of monthly data are used. The percentiles technique was employed in order to establish five categories or classes of the malaria incidence rates and precipitation for each municipal district.Results based on the analyses using annual data showed that the cities present different factors that contribute to the endemic profile. The growth of the population has direct relationship with the increased malaria incidence in Anajás, Itaituba and Santana do Araguaia. In Anajás, the precipitation was not a decisive factor in the occurrence of the parasitosis. In Santana do Araguaia and Viseu the highest rates of the malaria incidence occurred in years with rainfall deficit. For Viseu, the normal precipitation pattern also categorized high malaria incidence. Concerning the deforestation rates from 1988 until 1995, the curves of malaria incidence follow the deforestation rates. From 1995 onwards, it was evidenced consecutive years of high rates of malaria incidence just after the years characterized with higher deforestation rates, as observed during 1995, 2000 and 2004. Composites analyses based on objective selection of the indices of malaria occurrence categorized by the percentiles, allowed to define annual features of the regional climate variability in each city. In general, years with higher malaria indices area associated with the Pacific El Niño and warmer than normal oceanic conditions over the north Atlantic basin, while the years with lower malaria indices are related to the Pacific La Niña and no significant signal in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Results obtained from monthly data base, using composites based on objective selection of climate events observed over Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, it was investigated the response of such mechanisms on the monthly evolution of the malaria incidence over the Pará state. The El Niño composites revealed "negative" impacts, i.e., systematic and significant increase in cases of malaria occurring in a sequence of months in Itaituba and Santana do Araguaia. For Anajás and Viseu, the El Niño scenario is associated with "positive" impacts i.e., malaria incidence in the medium and low categories. Concerning La Niña composites, a widespread response over most of Pará state is verified, with predominance of higher malaria incidence in the four cities and processing persistently during the consecutive months from December to May. The composites for the positive dipole events in the intertropical Atlantic showed intra-regionally differentiated 11 malaria indices over the state, with Anajás and Itaituba presenting predominance of increased cases, while in Santana do Araguaia and Viseu presented several months with normal rates and below than average. Except for Itaituba, composites for the negative dipole events in the intertropical Atlantic evidenced malaria incidence in the medium and low categories, evolving from November to May.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Índices de extremos climáticos e tendências da precipitação anual e sazonal na Amazônia Oriental
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2010) SILVA, Ana Noele Brito; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Based on the daily precipitation and air temperature data from INMET eight meteorological stations over the Pará state, we calculated climate extremes indices through RClimdex statistical methodology in the period 1961-2007. Using monthly precipitation data from 134 ANA/INMET stations in eastern Amazon, we analyzed the annual and seasonal trends in a period of 25 to 37 years (1970-2009) through the nonparametric statistics (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method). Finally, we used deforestation data from PRODES/INPE in the period 2000-2007, in order to analyze the possible influence of deforestation in the precipitation trends particularly for the Pará state. The climate extremes indices related to the daily precipitation showed that the interannual variability of the indices has close relationships with ENSO episodes and phases of the Atlantic dipole. For the temperature indices there was systematic reductions of cold days (TX10p) and systematic increases in minimum temperature of maximum (TXN), percentage of warm nights (TX90p) and the maximum temperature of maximum (TXX). The results of the annual precipitation trends using nonparametric tests showed that the total of 134 stations, about 51% show positive trends and 41% negative trends in eastern Amazon. However, these annual trends "masked" somewhat seasonal trends, which were more diverse and explain the aspects of regional climate variability. For MAM, there were 99 stations (74%) with positive trends, indicating that the amount of rainfall during the main rainy season period has been increasing consistently in the last decade. In DJF, 45 stations (34%) presented positive trends and 78 stations (58%) negative trends. Moreover, in the period comprising the dry season there were seasonal trends predominantly negative, with 84 stations (62%) in JJA and 89 stations (66%) in SON. Therefore, the observational evidence that the precipitation of the dry period is in gradual decline in recent decades supports the hypothesis that deforestation is associated with reduced rainfall on a regional scale, but it is suggested that this occurs on a seasonal time scale.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Influência das oscilações climáticas tropicais na evolução da linha de costa atlântica do Pará-Brasil
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-11-05) GUERREIRO, Juliana de Sá; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Understand how the shoreline (LC) position dynamically changes in response to meteoceanographic processes and climate variability is essential to predict and mitigate the impact of future extremes on the Atlantic Coast of Pará (CAP). This thesis aimed to provide the first quantitative assessment of the relative influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) climate indices on meteoceanographic processes (wave climate, winds and precipitation) and on beach morphodynamics along the coast. In this study, the significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tz), speed (Wspd) and wind direction (Wdir) of the Era-Interim data (1979-2017) together with in situ wave data measurements on a macrotidal beach were used to define wave climate and its variability. Spectral analysis was used to quantify the wave propagation energy towards the LC. The results indicate that in CAP there are 3 modes of wave variability: 1) North-Northeast (N-NE) swell waves (frequency band – 0.04 – 0.14 Hz) during the rainy season; 2) Waves formed by the action of winds (windsea) from the Northeast (NE) (frequency band 0.14 – 0.33 Hz); and 3) East-Southeast (ESE) wind waves (frequency band 0.14 – 0.33 Hz) each with distinct wave power signatures. The behaviour of meteoceanographic processes associated with the main tropical climatic indices was analysed through the composites, whose results indicated more energetic waves, longer periods, greater precipitation and less intense winds during the La Niña and positive phases of the AMM. Less energetic waves, shorter periods, less precipitation and more intense winds were observed during the El Niño and negative phase of the AMM. In order to understand how the LC positions (obtained through a spectral approach by the Modified Water Index by Normalized Difference) in the CAP respond to climate variability and meteoceanographic processes, correlations were made between climate indices and change distances of LC. Cross-correlation values between climate indices and LC indicate that there is significant climate forcing, as they showed that the effects of ENSO and AMM were found in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean after 3-12 months. Therefore, changes in coastlines are associated with periodic variations in atmospheric forcing as climatic indices that modulate the position of the ITCZ, altering seasonal patterns in rainfall and wind regimes and their effects on sediment transport processes. Keywords: meteoceanography; climatic variability; beach morphodynamics.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Previsão hidrológica de cheia sazonal do rio Xingu em Altamira-PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2014-05-26) FRANCO, Vânia dos Santos; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Hydrologic models can be considered as a tool developed to represent the behavior of the hydrographic basin, predict future conditions and/or simulate hypothetic situations with the intent of evaluatins impacts of alterations. The socioeconomic impacts these of alterations (flooding; for example), and natural disasters normally affect less favored population groups. The present work investigated the climatologic aspects of the hydrologic regime of the river Xingu, including the elaboration of a statistical model for the prediction of seasonal floods in the municipality of Altamira-PA. In addition, it investigates the degree of social vulnerability associated to these conditions of floods in the municipality of Altamira. The results showed that a peak of floods occurs between the months of March and May (MAM) and the gaging variability is dependent of precipitation at the Xingu (in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso), as well of the pattern Pacific and Atlantic TSS that influence the bands of convective clouds of the ASCZ and ITCZ. The statistical hydrologic prediction model of the Xingu River in Altamira-PA, developed through multiple linear regression, presented significant correlation between variables, value considered adequate and good for coefficient Nash and Sutcliffe and low error to predict the quota of seasonal floods (MAM) of the municipality, taking in to account the predictor variables (explanatory) TSS and precipitation, because accompanied the observed quota. Through the index of social vulnerability (IVS) the vulnerability of Altamira in 2000 census as moderate write ik 2010 it was as low rated, what May not correspond to the current situation of the municipality given the construction of the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Plant.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Produtividade de citrus na Amazônia Oriental: relações com o clima atual, risco socioambiental relativo aos eventos extremos e modelagem dos impactos das mudanças climáticas futuras
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2023-05-31) DIAS, Thaiane Soeiro da Silva; RUIVO, Maria de Lourdes Pinheiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9419564604488031; HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-6222-5534; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
In the context of the agricultural frontier within the Amazonian territory, the production of citrus (lime and oranges) has been relevant in socioeconomic and environmental terms. In this thesis, three different scientific approaches were developed to elucidate: i) the relationships between citrus productivity and climate variability (rainfall and air temperature) and deforestation patterns in eastern Amazonia during the last decades; ii) the socio-environmental risk of citrus productivity due to extreme precipitation events in eastern Amazon; and iii) the impacts of different future scenarios of climate change on the distribution of potential areas of occurrence of the species Citrus sinensis over the Legal Brazilian Amazon. The results showed evidence that natural factors (climate variability and extreme precipitation events) and anthropic factors (deforestation) directly influence citrus productivity in several areas of eastern Amazonia. In addition, projections indicate that climate change can negatively impact the distribution of the main occurrence areas of the Citrus species throughout the Brazilian Legal Amazon.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Sazonalidade climática regional e a produção dos frutos de açaí (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) no estado do Pará
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2014-05-26) DIAS, Thaiane Soeiro da Silva; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
At the present work were analyzed the relationship between the regional climatic seasonality and the production of açaí fruits representative of 30 cities of Para during a period of 9 years (2003 to 2011). The analysis of correlations confirmed that the standard of precipitation, temperature and humidity interfere on the productivity of açaí fruits in this region, such as the regime of rainy period (months of December to may) associate itself to the low productivity of açaí fruits, while the regime of dry period (June to November) relates with high productivity of açaí fruits. Moreover, it was investigated the impacts of climate changes on açaí fruits production taking into account the future scenarios of regional clime. Throughout the results of a regression model using as predict variables the precipitation, temperature and humidity provided by global model HadGEM2 of IPCC, it is demonstrated that the quantity of açaí fruits(Kg/ha) does not go suffer significative changes in the next 20 years(2013 to 2032).