Navegando por Autor "NINA, Alex Santiago"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Desastres naturais e pobreza absoluta na Amazônia: uma análise quantitativa
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-02-11) NINA, Alex Santiago; ALMEIDA, Oriana Trindade de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0325909843645279
The Amazon is one of the poorest Brazilian regions and, in recent years, it has been hit by intense natural disasters. In this sense, this Ph.D. thesis aims to analyze how the occurrence of natural disasters affects the variation of absolute poverty in the Amazon between 2000 and 2010. The beginning and the end of this period coincide with the latest measurements of data reduction from demographic data, while in this interval, three major natural disaster events hit in the Amazon: the dry of 2005 and 2010 and the floods of 2009. Numerous studies, in international literature, point out that natural disasters affect the poor more severely than the rich and tend to maintain or increase levels of poverty in the regions where they occur. Based on these surveys, the following hypothesis was raised: “absolute poverty, both in terms of percentage and intensity, increased or decreased less in the Amazonian municipalities most frequently affected by natural disasters”. To test this hypothesis, a regression model was elaborated, which includes indicators of absolute poverty as a dependent variable and, as explanatory variables, indicators of natural disasters, economic growth and public assistance policies. The results showed that absolute poverty was accentuated in the municipalities most affected by natural disasters, but while droughts and gradual floods affected the percentage of poor, sudden floods decreased the income of the poor.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Efeitos de desastres naturais ao desempenho orçamentário do estado do Pará
(2014-12) NINA, Alex Santiago; SZLAFSZTEIN, Claudio Fabian
This paper assess the impacts of natural disaster in the budget performance of Pará State from 2000 to 2012, through of the correlation analysis of Emergency Situation and Public Calamity State decree numbers with: a) the budget efficiency of Risk Natural Management priority sectors; and b) the fiscal risk, calculated by income reduction and estimated funds reallocations. The results indicate that the fiscal vulnerability to natural disasters is high, meanly in the prevention activities (science and technology and Environment). The main alternatives to reduce the impacts are reinforcement of short-term actions, establishment of monetary funds and improvement of prevention actives.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Impactos de desastres naturais ao Produto Interno Bruto dos municípios e suas relações com o desenvolvimento sustentável: o caso das inundações de 2009 na Amazônia
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-03-01) NINA, Alex Santiago; SZLAFSZTEIN, Claudio Fabian; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1348005678649555
In the last years, have been increase the frequency of natural disasters in Amazon, concomitantly whit the need of estimate the economic losses these events, in order of define strategies to regional development. This work have the objective of check what is the type and intensity of 2009 floods impacts, considered the major already registered in Amazon, to the increase of municipal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The methodology was the linear correlation analysis between the economic performance (calculated whit base in observed and expected GDP to years of 2009 to 2012) and two sets of variables: qualitative (municipalities hit by floods, type of flood, state of localization) and quantitative (GDP, geographic size, population, GDP per capita, population density, Indices of Municipal Human Development, average income, indices of human poor and Gini, as well as income and budget transfers to municipalities). The results bring which the fast flood are the which more affect the long term economic increase, constituting a potential problem to development. The means strategies to be adopted are the inclusion of natural disasters mitigation actions in plan of economics increase and to sustainable development of Amazon.