Navegando por Autor "SIQUEIRA, Ionara Santos"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise da incidência de casos de dengue na área urbana de Belém – PA: uma aplicação de modelos espaciais e temporais
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2013-08-30) SIQUEIRA, Ionara Santos; QUEIROZ, Joaquim Carlos Barbosa; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4383935463464893
In this work, we conducted a study of mapping of risk areas and predictions for the cases of dengue in the urban area of Belém. For predictions was related to the incidence of dengue, the precipitation using statistical models based on the methodology of Box and Jenkins time series. The period of the study ran from 05 years (2007-2011). Were used multivariate time series methods, using transfer function and spatial models, in which we analyzed the existence of spatial autocorrelation in the variable under study. The results of the analyses of the occurrence data of dengue cases and precipitation showed that the increase in the number of cases of dengue fever accompanies the increase in precipitation, showing the direct relationship between the number of cases of dengue and the precipitation in the years under study. The forecasting model built for the incidence of dengue cases presents a good fit with satisfactory results and, in this case, can be used in cases of dengue. In relation to the spatial analysis for the incidence of dengue, was a preview of the possible incidence of cases in the urban area of Belém, with the respective areas of risk, showing the significance of risk levels in percentage. For the period studied was observed the behavior and the variations of the dengue cases in the study area, with emphasis on four neighborhoods: Marco, Guamá, Pedreira and Tapanã, showing possible influences of these neighborhoods in the areas (neighborhoods) nearby. Therefore, the present study highlights the contribution to the planning of the dengue control actions, to serve as an instrument in support of decisions in the area of public health.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Modelagem Hidrológica Estocástica Aplicada ao Rio Tocantins para a Cidade de Marabá-PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-03) CÂMARA, Renata Kelen Cardoso; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; PROTÁZIO, João Marcelo Brazão; QUEIROZ, Joaquim Carlos Barbosa; RIBEIRO, Wanda Maria do Nascimento; SIQUEIRA, Ionara Santos; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de
Hydrology studies show that it is possible to avoid natural disasters through the proper use of hydrological forecasts. In this work we used the Box-Jenkins Methodology (Time Series Analysis) to model the daily level of the Tocantins river in the city of Maraba - PA, in order to predict floods caused by its regular increase, an event that usually puts the resident population of risk areas in vulnerable situations. For the study, we used the daily levels of data observed in gauged stations of Maraba and Carolina and Conceição do Araguaia National Water Agency (ANA), the period of 01/12/2008 to 31/03/2011. It was evident that the adjusted model was able to capture the dynamics of time series with good prognosis for a period of seven days with a maximum absolute error of 0.08 m and with precision in forecasting over 99%. The forecasting model showed good results and can then be used as support tools for Civil Defense, assisting in the planning and preparation of preventive actions for the city of Maraba.