Navegando por Assunto "Cenários"

Agora exibindo 1 - 3 de 3

Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise do potencial de risco de rompimento em barragens de rejeito de mineração do Estado do Pará utilizando a metodologia Risk-Based Profiling System (RBPS).
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-05-30) CONCEIÇÃO, Raimundo Almir Costa; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594
The serious and very serious socioenvironmental disasters related to disruption in mining tailings dams have been exhibiting worldwide, a growing tendency since the 1960s and this is directly related to the increasing production of waste. In this context, there is a fundamental necessity for risk and safety analyzes of these dams, which can be done through methods that estimate the probability occurrence of disruption events, in order to make the decision to have a process more focused and safe. One of these analyzes is the so-called Risk-Based Profiling System (RPBS), which allows us to gauge, from qualitative data, the probability of a disruption and its probable consequences, which comes from the four most frequent scenarios (static, hydrological, seismic and operation and maintenance). This analysis was applied to six mining dams in the State of Pará, municipalities of Parauapebas, Paragominas and Canaã dos Carajás. The results showed, in the universe of analysis, dam B3 was the one with the highest failure rate (455.18), followed by the dam B1 (428.63) and the dam B2 (375,66). However, the dam with the highest risk for downstream areas was B2 with a Total Risk Index of 969.20 points, mainly due to the large number of possible people affected (12,900 people). This same dam is the one that would affect the greatest number of socioenvironmental components, defined then with possible cause of extreme damages. Compared with the risk analysis established in law, the RBPS analysis showed similarities, but more detailed in function of the four scenarios of analysis that will be generated, rather than just one. A risk analysis guide for dams was created as well, which came out from this present study.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Cenários de mudanças de uso da terra na Amazônia: explorando uma abordagem participativa e multi-escala no PAE Lago Grande, em Santarém-Pará
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2010) FOLHES, Ricardo Theophilo; AGUIAR, Ana Paula Dutra de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5810427753185619
The Agroforestry Settlement Projects (ASP) has largely been successful in achieving land ownership by traditional communities in the Amazon. In 2005, an ASP has been created by the National Institute of Colonization and Land Reform (INCRA) in Santarém County (PA), the so-called ASP of Great Lake, which has an area of 290,000 hectares and 30,000 inhabitants, and corresponds to one of the largest land reform settlements ever created in Brazil. In this agrarian context, this work aims to use scenarios derived from participatory methods in conformity with the reality of Amazon. Scenarios are tales of the future designed to better reflect from business planning to environmental analysis, using a variety of techniques and goals. Therefore, this work evaluate whether this technique can give support to the consolidation of different territorial units in this region. Thus, the ASP of Great Lake was used here as a case study. As a result, the study shows that there is great potential for replication such efforts in other agrarian reform methods of settlements and in units of conservation and sustainable use.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Modelagem de dinâmica do uso da terra e cobertura vegetal na região de Santarém, oeste do Pará
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2009) COELHO, Andréa dos Santos; AGUIAR, Ana Paula Dutra de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5810427753185619
In the last decade (1999-2009), the area of grain agriculture of Santarém region increased, mainly that of rice, corn and soybean. In the base of land tenancy structure of the region, this dynamic has occurred to land concentration due to the replacement of small for large and capitalized properties. Public policies of territorial law-enforcement created a mosaic of land unities with specific land-use rules, the conservation unities and a variety of settlement projects. The objectives of this research are: 1) to study the process of landscape transformation after the expansion of intensive grain agriculture, and 2) to construct scenarios of future that analyze alternatives to sustain? deforestation and land concentration in process in the region. Remote sensing techniques were used in Landsat 5 TM images of 1999, 2004 e 2007. Dynamic modeling techniques were used to explore scenarios of future (2015), considering rules of territory use. The results showed that until 2004, most of intensive grain agriculture was established in areas formerly occupied by smallholdings, pasture and capoeira (secondary vegetation). After 2004, the expansion of that land-use occurred mainly in forest areas, especially in settlement projects. The analyze of use transitions images in different types of settlement showed that the rules of land-use established as measure of territorial law-enforcement are not obeyed in many cases. As main methodological contribution, this research showed the importance of institutional variables related to land tenancy structure in analyzing landscape transformation and constructing scenarios. It was showed that this approach is necessary to understand the transformation processes in the studied region.