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Análise de risco de geração de eletricidade com sistemas fotovoltaicos conectados à rede usando o método de Monte Carlo
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2015-01-15) PEREIRA, Edinaldo José da Silva; PINHO, João Tavares; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0847897516772421
This work presents a risk analysis of the economic feasibility for energy generation systems, based on the Monte Carlo Method. Initially is presented a vision of the state of the art concerned to the participation of the main sources of renewable energy in the world, in particular in Brazil, in order to highlight the importance of them in the world. The efficient and rational use of energy is evidenced when the design of any energy efficient building, being the GEDAE/UFPA’s building presented as an example of construction that seeks to apply the characteristics of energy efficiency, bioclimatic architecture and environmental comfort. Based in the GEDAE/UFPA’s building, one of its SFCRs is presented and its economic analysis is performed using initially a deterministic approach and later a probabilistic analysis, via Monte Carlo Method. The cost of electric energy produced and the net present value, in a first moment, are used as dependent variables in the last analysis, due their easy interpretation. Modified internal rate of return and the discounted payback are dependent variables used later to better qualify the investor's decision against the risks assumed, since the use of only the first two may lead, as occurred in the case study analyzed, to results with comparable risks between the various alternatives proposed. In Brazil, in front of lack of an effective national policy for development of SFCRs, a national proposal to leverage the use of these systems is presented, quantifying the risk assumed by the investor and by the Federal Government adopting such proposal. The results show that SFCRs in Brazil nearly achieved the parity tariff for three-phase residential consumers. In addition, each year maintenance of the proposed adoption of incentive presented, here called green bonus, over 800 MWp could be added to the brazilian energy matrix. And if in this proposal, were applied a reduction of import taxes or an incentive for the establishment of a national industry that could reach a decrease in acquisition costs of the PV generator/inverter set up to 20%, an annual insertion of almost 1 GWp in the national energy matrix could be achieved, with a payback time for producer lower than six years.