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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica na Bacia do Rio Tocantins em Marabá-PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2008) SANTOS, Daniel Meninéa; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313369423727020
The objectives of the present work is to develop a statistical model to predict discharge or flow in Marabá-PA, as well assess the atmospheric dynamic structure associated with the extreme hydrological regime observed in the Tocantins river basin. The hydrological model based on multiple linear regressions uses time series derived from fluviometric and pluviometric stations which are obtained from ANA database. Validation tests of the statistical model with Nash coefficient above 0.9 and standard error of 1.5% and 5% during flood and drought periods, respectively, allow generating predictions of discharge with antecedence of 2 to 4 days (3 to 5 days) for the flood (drought) period. Through composites technique considering all years with record of above/very above discharge and below/very below discharge in Marabá, obtained from percentiles method, it was investigated the precipitation characteristics in basin scale and the dynamic aspects observed in each month (November to April). The composites of years with above/very above discharge showed that the rainfall on the basin was above normal in all months, and the large-scale patterns indicated a configuration associated with La Niña phenomenon over Pacific and cooling conditions over South Atlantic; intensification of both zonal/meridional ascending branch of the Walker/Hadley cell; intensification of the Bolivian High anomalously placed eastward and negative ROL anomalies associated with the joint occurrence of ZCAS and ZCIT. Conversely, the composites of years with below/very below discharge showed a predominance of precipitation below normal throughout basin, which was associated with the conditions of warming (El Niño) over Pacific, and also warm TSM anomalous over South Atlantic, cell of Walker and Hadley with weak upward movement, the positioning of the High Bolivia westward with positive ROL anomalies indicating inhibition of tropical convective activity. Additionally, a quantitative analysis of the socio-economic impacts in the main centers of Marabá revealed that approximately 10 thousand (5% of the population) people are affected by Tocantins river floods with costs in the flooding operations above R$ 500.000,00, considering the 2005 case.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
A contística das águas como escrita do desastre e da catástrofe: vidas viradas pelo avesso na Pan-Amazônia
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-01-22) SOUZA, Irisvaldo Laurindo de; SARMENTO-PANTOJA, Tânia Maria Pereira; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3707451019100958; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1575-5679
This master's thesis is the result of a research that investigated the representation of waters in the Amazonian literature, focusing on contouring that has as its leitmotiv the typical hydrological disasters of the region. Among them the Andean "llocllada", the fallen lands, the floods and the fluviomarine tide known as pororoca. The corpus consists of six short stories by four authors: "Terra caída", by Alberto Rangel (2008), part of the book Inferno Verde; "La llocllada" and "Sob as primeiras estrelas" [Cielo sin nubes], by the Peruvian writer Francisco Izquierdo Ríos (1975; 2010); "A flood", by the Amazonian writer Arthur Engrácio (1995); and "Poraquê" and “Mamí tinha razão", by the Paulista writer living in Pará João Meirelles Filho (2017). This research adopts the comparative method and its approach is qualitative, based on bibliography. The main hypothesis was to observe how water disruption impacts the Amazonian subject's experience both on his direct relationship with nature and on his relations with the prevailing social order. The theoretical axis that guides the investigation is the concept of catastrophe, taken from contemporary philosophical thought but directly articulated with the Aristotelian doctrine of human power. The second theoretical key used is the concept of disaster, brought from sociological thought and also epistemologically linked to the power of the natural act in Aristotle's doctrine. With this instrumental, the analytical reading of water contouring is undertaken as an allegorization of the Amazonian man's modus vivendi and of his problematic and sometimes traumatic exposure to the powers that govern the actions of Nature and the facts of Culture. The critical interpretation of literary texts by authors from different periods and aesthetic affiliations thus provides a reflection on the fractures that water disasters cause in daily life and in the experience of individual and collective subjects in the Pan-Amazon, as well as on the traumas imposed on them in late Modernity as a result of the advance of the capital's civilization on the Amazonian border.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Previsão estocástica de nível fluviométrico para cidade de Marabá-PA: método de Box-Jenkins
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2012-04-30) CÂMARA, Renata Kelen Cardoso; QUEIROZ, Joaquim Carlos Barbosa; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4383935463464893; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313369423727020
Marabá-PA city, located in the Amazon region, Southeast of Pará State, suffer annually with flood events, caused by periodic increase of Tocantins River and vulnerability of the population living in risk areas. State and municipal civil defense plans and annually prepare teams for actions to defend the city. At this stage the monitoring and prediction of flood events are importants. Therefore, in order to reduce errors in hydrological forecasts for Marabá city, developed a stochastic model to predict the level of Tocantins River, based on the methodology of Box and Jenkins. Used data from daily levels observed in the hydrological stations of National Water Agency (ANA) at Marabá, Carolina and Conceição do Araguaia, from 01/12/2008 to 31/03/2011. We conducted the adjustment of three models (Mt, Nt e Yt), using different statistical applications: SAS and Gretl, using different interpretations of the behavior of the series to generate models equations. The main difference between the applications is that the SAS uses the model of transfer function modeling. There was a sort of variable water level, through the technique of quantiles for the period 1972 to 2011, examining only levels categorizations and MUCH ABOVE ABOVE normal. For analysis of socioeconomic impacts were used the data of the shares of Civil Defense State of Pará in the floods of 2009 and 2011. The results showed that the number of events filled with much higher levels than normal, generally, may be associated with La Niña events. Another important result: generated models represented well the level of the river for seven days (from 04/01/2011 to 04/07/2011). The multivariate model Nt (with small errors) represented the behavior of original series, underestimating the real values on days 3, 4 and 5 April 2011, with a maximum error of 0.28 on day 4. The univariate model (Yt) had good results in simulations with absolute errors of around 0.12 m. The model with the lowest absolute error (0.08 m) for the same period was the model Mt, application developed by SAS, who plays the original series as nonlinear and non stationary. Quantitative analysis of the impacts fluviometric, floods occurred in 2009 and 2011 at Marabá city, revealed that on average more than 4000 families suffer from these events, implicated in high financial costs. Therefore, concludes that the levels forecast models are important tools that the Civil Defense, uses in the planning and preparation of preventive actions for the city of Marabá.