Navegando por Assunto "Inflation"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Econometric models of inflation in brazil: structuralists, monetarists and rational expectations approachs, 1995-2017
(University of Santiago de Compostela, 2019) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; CARVALHO, David Ferreira
The present article seeks to demonstrate the evolution of the inflation rate in Brazil during the period between the era of President Vargas and the government of President Michel Temer, together with the determinants of inflation between 1995 and 2017. With the aid of structuralist, monetarist, and inertialist econometric models, we attempt to understand the factors that influenced the inflation rate during this period, based on the monetarist models of rational and adaptive expectations. Once the regressions have been completed, we reach certain conclusions on the statistical significance level of the model and whether its variables have the power to explain the inflation rates in Brazil during the period following the Real Plan. Finally, we conclude that there are reasons to reject the hypothesis that the trend variable is adequately formulated to capture the effect of financial innovations in the equation for the demand for money
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
The performance of the brazilian economy: the development of inflation, growth and unemployment
(Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, 2019) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; CARVALHO, David Ferreira
In Brazil, as in most countries, government strategies have sought to encourage economic growth so as to reduce unemployment and maintain price stability as a deterrent to distributive conflict and rigid inflation, a historically difficult problem to solve in this country. Within this context, the fundamental objective of this article is to discuss the macroeconomic performance of the Brazilian economy during the period between the military dictatorship and the new republic, particularly in relation to inflation, economic growth and unemployment. The main conclusion is that Brazil urgently needs to improve its current economic performance. The federal government must therefore foster public and private investment so that all sectors of the economy may break with the current recession. It must also strengthen mechanisms to control inflation and reduce the risk factor and uncertainty for investors so that they are encouraged to hire labor. This will reduce unemployment and improve the outreach of social protection systems for low-income families. More expressly, it will generate opportunities for the improvement and specialization of certain productive activities so that the country is able to create skilled labor, thereby increasing income and stimulating consumption amongst these future workers.