Navegando por Assunto "Modelagem de distribuição de espécies"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Conservação do Jaborandi (Pilocarpus microphyllusStapf Ex Wardleworth) no Norte do Brasil: diversidade genética e impactos das mudanças climáticas futuras
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2023-05-31) CORRÊA, Waléria Pereira Monteiro; CALDEIRA JUNIOR, Cecílio Frois; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4071467514868919; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4762-3515; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
Jaborandi (Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf Ex Wardleworth) is a medicinal plant found in the north/northeast of Brazil. In recent decades, disordered extractive exploitation, the advance of agriculture and other activities that result in deforestation, as well as ongoing climate changes, have induced direct and indirect impacts on the survival of this plant species. Jaborandi is a natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used in the pharmaceutical industry to treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Therefore, the species is socio-environmental interest because the extractivism of its leaves has generated financial income for countless families, in addition to contributing to the conservation of the species in the region. In order to contribute to long-term conservation and survival strategies for the species, this study evaluated the structure and genetic diversity of the species P. microphyllus in a Conservation Unit (UC) in southeastern Pará (FLONA Carajás), as well as an environmental modeling study was developed to analyze the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of occurrence of jaborandi, in order to delineate suitable areas according to future climate scenarios. The results of the genetic study demonstrated the formation of 04 populations with high diversity and ecological structure, even with continuous extractivism within the Carajás FLONA, indicating that exploration has been taking place in a sustainable manner in the region. In the modeling study, the projections indicated impacts of climate change on the distribution of P. microphyllus with a reduction in suitable areas in the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes (Maranhão and Piauí) and expansion of the species in the protected areas of forest cover of the Amazon biome in southeastern Pará. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of diversity in the FLONA of Carajás and reinforce the need for management and conservation plans for P. microphyllus in priority areas, where the species finds favorable climatic conditions in future scenarios. In situ and ex situ conservation measures for this species are essential, since extracting the leaves contributes as a source of income for local communities.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Os efeitos das mudanças climáticas e do uso da terra no cultivo de cacau no bioma amazônico brasileiro.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-02-26) IGAWA, Tassio Koiti; ANJOS, Luciano Jorge Serejo dos; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0244738999001686; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3270-6679; TOLEDO, Peter Mann de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3990234183124986
“Climate change” has become an increasingly recurrent theme in intergovernmental meetings, as it suggests the establishment of a new normal, with the potential to challenge plant species and their ability to survive under conditions not analogous to current ones. Agriculture is one of the sectors of human activity most vulnerable to climate change, with some studies indicating that climate change could cause a reduction in world agricultural production. Thus, it is necessary to prepare interdisciplinary works in order to measure the possible effects caused by climate change to this productive sector. Therefore, this work aims to analyze the impacts of climate change and land use on cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon biome in 2050. In general, the results indicated that there will be a clear loss of suitability for the occurrence of cocoa in the scenarios and with that, there may be an increase in areas not recommended for cocoa cultivation. The areas of high and medium potential for cocoa production will be located, mainly, in the state of Rondônia and in the northeast of the state of Pará in both scenarios analyzed (RCP4.5 and 8.5). In addition, it was possible to identify probable significant losses in production of 92.92 and 95.28% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This could affect about 20,550 establishments, that is, thousands of rural producers. Therefore, it was concluded that climate change will have a negative impact on cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome.