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Análise dos impactos de mudanças nas precipitações pluviométricas sobre produtos florestais não madeireiros e as lavouras permanentes do Estado do Pará
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-04-27) NOGUEIRA, Ana Karlla Magalhães; SANTANA, Antônio Cordeiro de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2532279040491194
The objective of the thesis was to analyze the impacts of the changes in rainfall on non-timber forest products (NTFP) and permanent crops in the state of Pará from 1999 to 2013, measured by means of a panel data and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Hence, the socioeconomic and environmental benefit of extraction and commercialization of Brazil nut, andiroba and copaiba oils were calculated. The influence of changes in rainfall levels on the permanent crop market in the mesoregions in the state of Pará were also measured from 2000 to 2013 by estimating the supply and demand equations in the form of fixed-effects dynamic panel data. It was verified in the analyzed period that the demand and the supply of Brazil nuts, andiroba and copaiba oils and products from permanent crops were inelastic in price. The income elasticity of demand encompassed Brazil nuts and andiroba and copaiba oils as superior goods and the permanent crops as essential to consumption. The cross-elasticity of demand indicated a complementary relationship between acai and Brazil nuts and substitution between products of permanent and temporary crops. The cross-elasticity of supply indicated that the production of oils and Brazil nuts does not compete with the use of labor, land and capital in the local market, since they are considered as joint products. In contrast, in relation to temporary crops, the cross-elasticity of the supply of permanent crops indicated a competitive relationship with the factors of production. Changes in rainfall have a negative influence on the supply of Brazil nuts, andiroba and copaiba oils and products from permanent crops in the mesoregions of Pará state. Regarding Brazil nuts, the results also showed that due to changes in the levels of the rainfall, a decrease has occurred in the socioeconomic environmental benefit for the population of western Pará since 1999, which is a decrease of 16.46% in relation to the benefit obtained before the change in the rainfall levels. As for the distribution of benefits after changes in rainfall, consumers were those who had the main losses, with a drop of 10.22% (-R$ 5,406.03 thousand) of total benefits. With respect to the oils of andiroba and copaiba, a decrease of 1.45% (-R$68.72 thousand) was also verified in the socioeconomic environmental benefit for the population of the western Pará. Consumers were the main losers, with a loss of -R$124.67 thousand/year. The objective of this research was to analize the impacts of changes on rainfalldy about forest