Navegando por Assunto "Risk"

Agora exibindo 1 - 6 de 6

Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Construction delays: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-09) MAUÉS, Luiz Mauricio Furtado; SANTANA, Wylliam Bessa; SANTOS, Paulo Cerqueira dos; NEVES, Renato Martins das; DUARTE, André Augusto Azevedo Montenegro
The construction industry is one of the industrial sectors with the lowest rates of fulfilment of contract deadlines, especially in developing countries. This fact has been the focus of considerable discussions seeking to identify the causes of the delays. The main purpose of this paper is to use factor analysis to identify the factors that are correlated with delay, contemplating exclusively residential real estate projects and using a city in the Brazilian Amazon as a case study. Based on the database from the government agency that authorises constructions in the city of Belém (City Planning Department - Secretaria Municipal de Urbanismo, SEURB) and data from construction companies, the study investigated 274 construction projects from the past 11 years. Factor analysis and work with the variables that can be identified and measured in the initial phase of the project, i.e., during the feasibility study, demonstrate that the physical characteristics of the apartments and the construction project are the primary causes for variations in construction delays; these causes have not yet been reported in the literature. We hope that the results of this study will contribute to more consistent forecasting of construction time, minimising the risk of delays.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Governança de risco em barragens de contenção de rejeitos: uma análise da lei de segurança de barragens e das entidades reguladoras
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2022-12-16) PEREIRA, Oniwendel Felipe de Morais; RAVENA, Nírvia; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0486445417640290
Still in the first decade of implementation of the Dam Safety Law (LSB), three failures were recorded in Brazil in tailings containment dams with considerable socioeconomic and environmental impacts. These disruptions, at the beginning of the implementation of the LSB, draw attention to this important regulatory framework that should guarantee adequate Risk Governance and promote Brazilian society to support the strengthening of dam safety. In addition, observing other scenarios, such as the important region of the Amazon, where the State of Pará is located, one can observe a fact that reinforces the need to reflect on the safety of these structures, given that, according to SNISB data (ANA, 2021) is the second entity of the federation with the most dams for containing mining tailings, second only to Minas Gerais. Many concerns can be raised regarding the safety of these dams, one of them is a basic aspect, where the question is, does LSB present Risk Governance? And if it does, at what level is it present? Thus, this thesis aimed to analyze whether the LSB can be considered as having a low level of presence of Risk Governance and for this purpose, the hypothesis was formulated that a gap that exists in the LSB, tending to impair the safety of containment dams of tailings in Brazil, is caused by the adoption of a model with a low degree of Risk Governance. The question that guided the research hypothesis was: In comparison with the Risk Governance model developed by the IRGC (2017), as well as other models, can LSB be classified as low grade in terms of the presence of Risk Governance? The analysis was carried out by performing the structured comparison of the LSB with other models and to optimize this process, the Comparative Qualitative Analysis tool was used, through its variant Fuzzy Set QCA (fsQCA). Eight different cases were used as a basis for comparison and for the construction of causal conditions, the IRGC Risk Governance model (2017) was used. The results denied the hypothesis of this thesis, however, they contributed with final considerations relevant to the theme. Among them, it is noteworthy that most public entities that apply the LSB do not have full presence of Risk Governance in their regulatory frameworks, including SEMAS-PA, which only recently sought to start applying the LSB.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
A manutenção do equilíbrio econômico de contratos de obras públicas empreitadas: parâmetros para o estudo de riscos vinculados a atrasos no encaixe do preço
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2004-12-01) MATTOS, Renato Marinho Meira; ALENCAR, Cláudio Tavares de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1047965312058430; CRUZ, André Luiz Guerreiro da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5891750095857292
In the Civil Engineering field, one of the most important segments is the global piecework, the one that is made by an agreement and by the right and total price. Public works, that are meant to attend a public utility, and whose contracts are ruled by the 8.666/93 Law, are often bided this way. Article 58 of this Law determines that the economic-financial balance of these contracts must be kept. The theoric fundamentation concerns of public works concepts, the most important aspects of 8.666/93 Law, economic-financial analysis and risks analysis. This paper presents, also, a systematic and numeric simulation to piecework undertaking im Civil Engineering field. The goal of this paper is to create parameters for the establishment of protection margins for due-date extension, and respective price receiving, as determined by 8.666/93 Law, thus keeping the original balance. Based on 63 analyzed construction works, the economic-financial balance is verified, comparing the expected restricted return rate at the bidding moment, with the one that was actually obtained in the operation. From the deviation detected in the return rates between those two different moments, parameters for covering the referred risks are created by a simulation process and sensibility analysis. First, at the bidding moment, the restrict return mean rate is 9,45% a month. At the second moment, this rate falls to 5,16% a month. It represents, in mean, 45,39% of variation. The atractive mean rate based on the analysed public construction works is between 6% to 13% a month. The calculated parameters for due-date extension and respective price receiving is between 1,5% to 11,5% of price. Therefore, in the analysed public works, dont exist the economic-finacial maintaining balance.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Na “beira” do cais, o centro englobador em risco: perspectivas e possibilidade de reordenamento da orla de Abaetetuba/PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2022-05-30) SILVA, Dalgisa da Conceição Araújo da; SOUZA, Alexandre Augusto Cals e; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2652815221358066; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1424-5055
This work proposes to analyze the process of transformation that has been developing along the urban riverfront of the municipality of Abaetetuba/PA, occupations in the Amazonian landscape, in areas protected by the course of tides and riparian forests in areas that should be protected. These occupations constitute areas of vulnerability, where the risks are present in the houses built in areas of water courses, in areas of erosive soil, in a caused way and without protection infrastructure, a fact that culminated in a disaster that occurred in 2014 in the São João neighborhood: a landfill collapse destroyed 13 (thirteen) houses and, as a result, 51 (fifty one) families were supported by the disaster. In a similar way, this occupation process also affected other areas of the riverside, mainly the commercial side, which I call here the encompassing center, as it is a historic neighborhood with economic and cultural potential, where one of the largest open-air fairs in the region. I followed this accident while working at the Municipal Civil Defense Coordination, and I was able to see firsthand the suffering of people who had losses of all kinds, and who were no longer able to return to their homes. This fact motivated me to question how to rearrange risk areas in already consolidated urban spaces, in order to prevent new disasters from occurring. The risk scenario takes place in Abaetetuba, in areas of different land uses and occupations, areas of social vulnerability, environmental protection, commercial flow, concentration of urban equipment and an area of historical memory. In this way, I analyze the process of transformation of the riverside neighborhoods of Abaetetuba as the formation of risk areas for the development of a proposal and planning that considers the risks and vulnerabilities present in these territories. Based on the research results, it was found that, despite the history of disasters in these places, the existing urban structure and the lack of a risk management plan that protects the riverfront contributed to the risk scenario that is presented. In this way, it is necessary to take into account the possibilities of public intervention based on improvements in existing planning instruments and the elaboration of new ones, which include the diagnosis of the areas, monitoring and a differentiated treatment for the risk areas in which the population participates. of the process. The research was carried out through data collection and application of semi-structured questionnaires with public sector agents and civil society to enable a more efficient planning proposal. The research was conceived in a multidisciplinary analysis in which contributions from municipal plans and scholars from the areas of geography, environment, social sciences and urban policy are articulated.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Otimização e análise de risco da capacidade portuária da bacia amazônica, quanto ao crescimento da demanda de grãos e ao porte dos navios
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2022-06-03) MORAES NETO, Luciano Pinto de; MORAES, Hito Braga de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5044859479302394; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0214-0587
Maritime transport in recent years has brought about a great change in ports around the world due to the advancement of technology which allowed the construction of increasingly larger vessels to reduce freight and transport more cargo. Aware of this reality, this work develops an assessment of port terminals in the Amazon basin, using queuing theory combined with risk analysis and optimization to evaluate port capacity in the face of future grain demands for the region, given that with the advance technology, larger ships are being manufactured and capable of transporting large amounts of cargo, with this advance, the existing ports need to adapt their infrastructure according to the new trends in shipbuilding. In this dissertation, data was collected of movement of cargo and capacity of the existing port terminals in the Amazon region with a focus on long-haul export terminals. A model was developed using the queuing theory to gauge the capacity of terminals and the productivity of ships for use in the @RISK platform, which uses optimization combined with risk analysis, generating distribution and tornado graphs, enabling the analysis of the terminals. help in decision-making on the performance of terminals and ships in an integrated manner. The research allows, through generated simulations, the analysis of various scenarios for the movement of grain from these terminals and the impact that larger ships will bring to the region's port infrastructure. Considering that the estimated movement of terminals in the Amazon basin for 2030 is approximately 60 million tons, where it was observed that the terminals are not prepared to achieve this stipulated target if they do not invest in their development.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Risco, incerteza e expectativa na dinâmica dos eventos de uma economia capitalista na perspectiva de Keynes e Knight
(Grupo de Estudos em Economia Política e História Econômica, 2019-01) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; RODRIGUES, Phelipe da Silva; CARVALHO, David Ferreira
The main objective of this article is to discuss under the aegis of the concepts of risk, uncertainty and expectation, the dynamics of economic events and how they influence their behavior, based on this conception by John Maynard Keynes and Frank Hyneman Knight. The main conclusion is that the phenomenon of economic crises is historically inseparable from the capitalist economy. Thus, it is undeniable that the concept of risk and uncertainty is observed by the economy and that, even when the economic agents act rationally when faced with ex ante decision-making in an environment of uncertainty, the economy will still be susceptible to the (negative) effects of a crisis, since a state of euphoria, coupled with the irrational conduct of the economic agents, may provoke a situation of economic, financial, political and social instability as a an ex post result.