Navegando por Assunto "Social security"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
O déficit do sistema previdenciário brasileiro: análise econômica para o período de 1995-2018
(Universidad del Zulia, 2019-09) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; CARVALHO, David Ferreira; AIRES, Alana Paula de Araújo
At the present juncture, the social security model in Brazil represents a serious structural problem of Brazilian public accounts. It is precisely in this context that the country is undergoing the need for emergency imposition of a “pension reform” with the purpose, above all, of making the constitutional rights of Brazilian workers more flexible. In general terms, the problem of the social security deficit is caused by the financial imbalance of the Brazilian social security system, which is manifested at the moment that the income is less than the expense. This problem characterizes the crisis of the social security system, which is due to several reasons: 1) gradual aging of the population; 2) reduction of population growth; 3) difficulty in making changes or adjustments to the rules of pensions through a pension reform; and 4) changes in the labor market. In this context, we identify the research problem; we can formulate, from now on, the fundamental objective of this article: to investigate and subsequently discuss the determinant causes of the deficit of the social security regime in between 2005- 2018, which put the country in this in a crisis condition. The main conclusion is that part of social security revenue, instead of financing pensions, is simply diverted to other uses or used as an available financial asset, which ends up imparting a vain idea of a high primary surplus by reducing net debt consolidating the Union, providing an imaginary perception of sustainability to the federal government’s solvency indicators and the Central Bank’s credibility with the financial market.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Uma metodologia para aferição da acurácia de modelos de projeção de longo prazo para a Previdência Social no Brasil
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-12-01) SILVA, Carlos Patrick Alves da; PUTY, Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5885474167011571; FRANCÊS, Carlos Renato Lisboa; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7458287841862567
Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government’s proposed pension reform. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This work aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. More specifically, this work investigates what would be the source of data, assumptions, equations, variables, parameters and estimation methods used to compute results released by the federal government. An empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. In addition, attempts to reproduce the results of the 2012 and 2018 LDOs demonstrate the lack of transparency in official documents, both in the described equations and the databases used. From a mathematical model developed, it was shown that the long-term forecasts of variables, such as GDP, Social Security revenues and expenses, have a large component of volatility and uncertainty which make your forecast challenging in the short term and impossible, with an acceptable level of confidence, in the long run. A sensitivity analysis for the productivity and average contribution rate parameters showed the impact of these on Social Security results, showing a gain of up to 72% in revenue for an annual labor productivity growth of 3%, for example. Finally, a free and open source software, developed under this research, that implements the current official forecast model is presented, as well as several improvements in the design process, such as the ability to simulate changes in the labor market.