Navegando por Assunto "Spatio-temporal analysis"

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Acesso aberto (Open Access)
A construção do cenário epidemiológico do HIV e AIDS na Colômbia: uma análise espaço-temporal
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2020-02-06) RESTREPO, Jhon Fredy Montana; COUTO, Danielle Costa Carrara; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4583227212550116; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3810-1686; BOTELHO, Eliã Pinheiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6276864906384922; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9682-6530
The HIV and AIDS epidemic is a global health problem and has its own identity for each country, region and state. Spatial analysis techniques are useful as they allow situational diagnosis by correlating this with socio-political territorial factors that may contribute to the epidemic. However, during the literature review, no study of this nature was observed in Colombian territory. Objective: The present study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of the HIV and AIDS epidemic in Colombia from 2008 to 2016. Methodology: This is an ecological study using techniques of spatial analysis and time series, in which Secondary data collected from the National Health Institute and the National Statistics Department of Colombia were analyzed. The incidence rates of HIV and AIDS and AIDS Mortality were calculated and a descriptive analysis was performed using the Microsoft® Office Excel® 2013 program and the Minitab 18® program. For temporal analysis, the regression model of the Joinpoint® 4.7.0.0 program was used. In spatial analysis, global Moran spatial autocorrection was used, followed by local spatial autocorrelation indicators, bivariate Moran analyzes and Kernel density. Spatial analyzes were performed using ArcGis 10.3.1 and TerraView 4.2.2. Results: Men were most affected by the epidemic during the study period. The incidence rate of HIV and AIDS tended to increase, while the mortality rate showed stability. The age group with the highest incidence growth was 15 to 44 in men and over 65 in women. The mortality rate increased in the age group of 65 years or more, for both sexes. The expansion of the epidemic occurred in the extreme North and from the central region towards the northeast of Colombia, with the municipalities belonging to the “coffee axis” and the Caribbean region being the areas of greatest epidemiological pressure. Tourist municipalities, crossed by the main highways, with high human development index and demographic density had the highest incidences. Between 2014 and 2016 there was an increase in incidence in municipalities in the border area with Venezuela. Conclusion: The incidence of HIV and AIDS is higher in the most developed regions of Colombia and is beginning to expand in municipalities bordering Venezuela. Highways play a major role in the spread of HIV in Colombian territory. Implementation of health policies in these places is necessary to reduce HIV and AIDS.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra e as perspectivas da abordagem nexus água, alimento e ecossistemas em bacias hidrográficas costeiras do Nordeste Paraense, Amazônia Oriental
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2024-02-23) DUTRA, Vitor Abner Borges; TOLEDO, Peter Mann de Toledo; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3990234183124986; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0594-0187
The Amazon is increasingly gaining global spotlight, despite chronically suffering the massive destruction of its ecosystems. In this context, this thesis focused on the question “to what extent will changes in land use and cover modify the landscapes of watersheds in the Eastern Amazon by 2030 and how do these changes imply the achievement of environmental goals to promote sustainable development?”. Thus, three scientific articles were prepared, where the first two dealt with the region’s spatio-temporal changes in the recent past and near future, and the third designed an integrated Nexus approach of water, food and ecosystem indicators, aligned with current environmental policies. In the first article, the dynamics of the landscapes of three watersheds between 1985 and 2019 were evaluated. The results revealed a significant conversion from forest to pasture of approximately 1,000 km², with an increase in forest fragments from 2547 to 6604, highlighting the importance of measures conservation and recovery of vegetation for the maintenance of local ecosystems. In the second article, simulations of future land cover scenarios for the region were carried out, with an emphasis on deforestation and its greenhouse gas emissions, under three hypothetical scenarios. The results indicated that, regardless of the scenario, the region could face a significant increase in deforestation and emissions by 2030, with deforestation varying from 90 thousand hectares to 125 thousand hectares, and respective greenhouse gas emissions between 3.67% and 5.09% of total emissions of the Pará State, highlighting the urgency of implementing policies for the conservation and recovery of native vegetation. In the third article, the interconnection of water, food and ecosystem indicators was explored, under the backdrop of the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda and the Amazon Now State Plan. We identified some challenges, such as low environmental compliance and high pressure on water and forestry resources. However, opportunities for improvements were also identified, such as encouraging the adoption of agroforestry systems, the recovery of permanent preservation areas around water resources and the use of thriving crops from the Amazon bioeconomy, as they can result in socioeconomic and environmental improvements in the region. In summary, the studies demonstrated the complexity of environmental changes in the Eastern Amazon and the importance of an integrated approach to address pressing challenges. For a successful experience, actions must be coordinated between governments, local communities and other stakeholders, in order to guarantee the conservation of local ecosystems and the well-being of current and future generations.