Análise dos fatores relacionados ao desempenho das escolas no IDEB: estudo de caso no Estado do Pará

Abstract

The complexity of identifying all the factors that are related to the performance of schools on the Basic Education Development Index (IDEB) is enormous. In this study, three databases were analyzed with the objective of identifying several factors that correlate with low performance in state schools in the state of Pará. Initially, it was observed through the analysis that 142 municipalities in the state were at risk of not meeting the goal regarding the reduction of school dropouts and, consequently, affecting the performance of schools. This study used educational data mining techniques to, first, select variables with structural characteristics in the teaching environment, comparing the schools with higher and lower performance in IDEB, identifying possible relationships with school dropouts. Then, the Randon Florest (RF) algorithm was used to select the most important variables that directly or indirectly impact the IDEB index. After the selection phase, the variables were submitted to the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm. The results reveal that in the group of schools below average in IDEB, 60.6% reside in families with incomes up to one minimum wage, while 37.5% have incomes above one minimum wage. In the group of schools above average in IDEB, 42.4% live in families with incomes up to one minimum wage, while 51.6% live in families with incomes above one minimum wage. Evidencing that family income is related to better IDEB scores and, consequently, better infrastructure conditions. The results also indicate that the income of students’ families is related to the average family income in the analyzed municipalities. Next, variables related to parents’ income were used to identify a possible relationship between parents’ schooling and students’ performance. Finally, the analysis ends with the analysis of the impact of the Municipal Human Development Index (HDI) on the variables related to the students’ grades, the teachers’ qualifications, and the teachers’ experience in the school environment. The results reveal that there is a correlation between the index and student learning in the classroom. On the other hand, better IDEB scores are directly related to the adequacy of the curriculum to the subject taught, in addition to good working conditions for teachers.