Análise do impacto das mudanças climáticas nas unidades de conservação dos manguezais amazônicos na Costa Atlântica Brasileira

Abstract

The Amazonian mangroves are subject to various climate impacts, demanding conservation and adaptation actions. The objectives of this study are to assess the vulnerability of the Amazonian mangrove Protected Areas (PAs) to climate change, provide climate prediction data for the region, and analyze if the PAs are effectively fulfilling their role in protecting these ecosystems. To achieve these objectives, data from MapBiomas were used to delimit the mangrove area, data from the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) were used to identify the PAs within the mangroves, data from WorldClim were used to obtain information on mean annual temperature (BIO1) and accumulated precipitation (BIO12), and Above Ground Biomass (AGB) data were used. The processing was carried out using ArcGIS, QGIS, and RStudio software. The results revealed a trend of increasing temperature over time, while accumulated precipitation showed a decreasing trend across different scenarios and periods. These patterns indicate that protected mangroves may face a continuous increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation by the end of the century. The higher temperature contributes to increased energy availability, playing a fundamental role in regulating evapotranspiration in mangrove forests. On the other hand, reduced precipitation has a negative impact on salinity, productivity, growth, and species diversity in mangroves. The study also assessed the PAs that protect mangrove forests in the Amazon region, along with Above Ground Biomass (AGB) representing the amount of carbon stored in trees. The results showed that 80.2% of the mangroves are included within PAs, with higher protection in the state of Maranhão, followed by Amapá and Pará. However, there was variation in AGB among the evaluated states, with an increase in Amapá and Pará and a decrease in Maranhão. It is crucial to implement more effective management and conservation measures to address the challenges posed by climate change in these coastal ecosystems.