Modelagem de dinâmica do uso da terra e cobertura vegetal na região de Santarém, oeste do Pará

Abstract

In the last decade (1999-2009), the area of grain agriculture of Santarém region increased, mainly that of rice, corn and soybean. In the base of land tenancy structure of the region, this dynamic has occurred to land concentration due to the replacement of small for large and capitalized properties. Public policies of territorial law-enforcement created a mosaic of land unities with specific land-use rules, the conservation unities and a variety of settlement projects. The objectives of this research are: 1) to study the process of landscape transformation after the expansion of intensive grain agriculture, and 2) to construct scenarios of future that analyze alternatives to sustain? deforestation and land concentration in process in the region. Remote sensing techniques were used in Landsat 5 TM images of 1999, 2004 e 2007. Dynamic modeling techniques were used to explore scenarios of future (2015), considering rules of territory use. The results showed that until 2004, most of intensive grain agriculture was established in areas formerly occupied by smallholdings, pasture and capoeira (secondary vegetation). After 2004, the expansion of that land-use occurred mainly in forest areas, especially in settlement projects. The analyze of use transitions images in different types of settlement showed that the rules of land-use established as measure of territorial law-enforcement are not obeyed in many cases. As main methodological contribution, this research showed the importance of institutional variables related to land tenancy structure in analyzing landscape transformation and constructing scenarios. It was showed that this approach is necessary to understand the transformation processes in the studied region.