Modelo para estimar o prazo de execução de obras residenciais verticais: por meio da lógica fuzzy

Abstract

The definition of the execution time of vertical residential buildings occurs, in most cases, empirically and during the economic and financial feasibility study of the project. This generates high risks and uncertainties regarding the deadline compliance. However, there are tools of computational intelligence that can contribute to the reduction of the degree of uncertainty, among them the fuzzy logic. This work aims to develop a hybrid model to estimate, in a reasonable way, the construction period of vertical residential buildings by associating factor analysis and fuzzy logic. For this it was used a database from the Municipal Secretary of Urban Development of Belém (SEURB) and the developers of the city, which are target of the case study, in the period from 08/24/2015 to 09/11/2015. To build the model, in the first step, i.e., the factor analysis, 127 projects were used; in the second step, the fuzzy inference, 71 projects were used; and, for the validation phase, 16 projects were used. Results obtained showed a significant level of assertiveness, with accuracy of 75%, taking into account an interval whose limits (upper and lower) were calculated in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The model delivered a prediction performance superior to other models already accepted in literature. As theoretical contribution, the work allows a better understanding of the uncertainties and risks regarding the definition of the execution time of real estate projects, and also about how the modeling can help entrepreneurs/construction campany and technicians to make better decisions based on a hybrid model, considering the uncertain and complex environment of the economic and financial feasibility study phase for future projects.