Previsão hidrológica de cheia sazonal do rio Xingu em Altamira-PA

Abstract

Hydrologic models can be considered as a tool developed to represent the behavior of the hydrographic basin, predict future conditions and/or simulate hypothetic situations with the intent of evaluatins impacts of alterations. The socioeconomic impacts these of alterations (flooding; for example), and natural disasters normally affect less favored population groups. The present work investigated the climatologic aspects of the hydrologic regime of the river Xingu, including the elaboration of a statistical model for the prediction of seasonal floods in the municipality of Altamira-PA. In addition, it investigates the degree of social vulnerability associated to these conditions of floods in the municipality of Altamira. The results showed that a peak of floods occurs between the months of March and May (MAM) and the gaging variability is dependent of precipitation at the Xingu (in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso), as well of the pattern Pacific and Atlantic TSS that influence the bands of convective clouds of the ASCZ and ITCZ. The statistical hydrologic prediction model of the Xingu River in Altamira-PA, developed through multiple linear regression, presented significant correlation between variables, value considered adequate and good for coefficient Nash and Sutcliffe and low error to predict the quota of seasonal floods (MAM) of the municipality, taking in to account the predictor variables (explanatory) TSS and precipitation, because accompanied the observed quota. Through the index of social vulnerability (IVS) the vulnerability of Altamira in 2000 census as moderate write ik 2010 it was as low rated, what May not correspond to the current situation of the municipality given the construction of the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Plant.