Risco ambiental, incerteza Keynesiana, economia ecológica: rumo a uma abordagem macroeconômica ecológica

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the relationship between environmental risk and the fundamental uncertainty that acts on the agent at the time of decision-making in order to generate a new theoretical approach on the relationship between the variables. As a secondary objective, we sought to extend the post-Keynesian literature to the point where it relates to ecological macroeconomics. To achieve the proposed objective, the dissertation is divided into two chapters, the first chapter discusses the convergences and divergences between post-Keynesian theory and ecological macroeconomics and the second chapter explores the relationships between environmental risk, fundamental uncertainty during the process of decision making. The first chapter adopts a context of climate change where there is growing concern about environmental sustainability and financial stability. Thus, the characteristics of post-Keynesian theory and ecological economics are often associated, as it is considered that together they can contribute to solutions to economic, social and environmental problems. The first chapter performs a theoretical approximation between post-Keynesian theory and ecological macroeconomics, identifying their main convergences and divergences. From a bibliographic survey, it appears that the currents of thought have significant similarities and an approximation between the two is possible and can be beneficial for both. The second chapter points out that there is a need to fill the knowledge gap between the uncertainty of the occurrence of climate phenomena and the risk of these phenomena occurring and aims to understand the relationship between fundamental uncertainty and environmental risk in the context of the economic system and how this can affect the decision-making process. Based on a bibliographic survey, it appears that fundamental uncertainty is an intrinsic characteristic of environmental risk and negatively interferes with decision-making. There is a multiplication of the set of uncertainties associated with the absence or insufficiency of knowledge during the decision-making process, which adds to the uncertainty intrinsic to environmental risk. The final result is expected to contribute to the development of a post-Keynesian macroeconomics that takes environmental aspects into account. In this way, the present work contributes to the extension of the post-Keynesian literature in the point where it relates it to ecological macroeconomics, in addition to generating a new theoretical approach on the relationship between environmental risk, fundamental uncertainty throughout the decision-making process of decision.