Avaliação da segurança de sistemas de potência para múltiplas contingências usando árvore de decisão multicaminhos

Abstract

The search for effective ways to promote the secure operation of power systems and to increase its understanding by operators has encouraged continuous research for new techniques and methods that can help in this task. In this paper, it is proposed an approach to assess power system operation security for multiple contingencies using a multiway decision tree (MDT). The MDT differs from other decision tree techniques for establishing, in the training step, one value of the categorical attributes by branch. This approach proposes the use of topologies (contingencies) as categorical attributes. In this way, it improves interpretability regarding the power system operational state, as the operator can see clearly the critical variables for each topology, such that the MDT rules can be used in aiding the decision-making. This proposal was used for security assessment of two test systems, the IEEE 39-bus system and the Northern part of the Brazilian Interconnected Power System (BIPS), and BIPS was tested with real data from one day operation. The proposed MDT-based technique demonstrated superior performance, with a set of simple and clear rules. It was also performed a comparison of the obtained results with other techniques based on DT and it turned out that MDT has resulted in a simpler procedure for power system security classification with good accuracy.