2011-09-062011-09-062005-08-15ELIASQUEVICI, Marianne Kogut. Um modelo de avaliação integrada para análise de incertezas em programas governamentais: um estudo da educação a distância no Estado do Pará. 2005. 356 f. Tese (Doutorado) – Universidade Federal do Pará, Núcleo de Altos Estudos Amazônicos, Belém, 2005. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Sustentável do Trópico Úmido.http://www.repositorio.ufpa.br:8080/jspui/handle/2011/2324The task of designing a distance education (EAD) system (SEAD) is not easy, due to the number of components it needs (students, faculty, administration, infra-structure, etc.), the complexity of the process, the several approaches concerning its effectiveness, the concurrent values, the interests involved and the urgent decisions needed. Pará State has successful experiences in such educational modality in all educational levels. However, there still are obstacles, problems and uncertainties to be faced. With such understanding, the objective of this research work was to create an analytical model to identify and interpret the uncertainties present in the use of EAD in Pará State educational system and to detect the attitudes of the actors involved and interested in the process, contributing with criteria and strategies that can be used, in uncertainty situations, to the implementation of SEADs and their operating procedures. For this reason, the work took as a base the Integrated Assessment Methodology (AI), in a pluralist perspective, which was carried out in several moments, including: broad bibliographic research, sounding about the guiding of EAD in the State; the use of Delphi inquiring method to instigate the consensus among the most relevant uncertainties, the use of the Cultural Theory to subsidize the identification of the respondents cultural orientation aiming to detect different positions towards EAD; the use of the Cluster Analysis statistics technique to group uncertainties and individuals by similarities; and, at last, an integrated analysis of the results obtained in each one of the several stages. The consensus level was low, resulting in eight uncertainties considered relevant to the process. Among them, 50% have a methodological dimension, expressing that, during an innovation process, methodology appears to represent changes in paradigms already established. The grouping of uncertainties, on the other hand, revealed eight great sets of controversies that put pressure, in different ways, to the process of decision making and operational procedures of the EAD systems. From each set characteristics, we can notice that the problems faced by EAD in Pará are part of the current context and include preoccupations that refer to specific points that guide the process, to uncertainties of a general nature, to the political commitment, to components that indicate quality and EAD’s recognition, to methodological and technical aspects, to the stability of such educational modality, to the access and use of new information and education technologies and to the infra-structure conditions. During the conception of SEADs, the cultural orientation influences the approach to be adopted by the system controllers, and it may direct the approach to certain focus like: administrative (hierarchy), the respect for students (equality), the students satisfaction (individuality) and to a vision of diffidence (fatality). The integration of all the work results allowed the indication of decision criteria and strategies to face uncertainties or even to learn how to deal with them. The conclusion was that, the use of AI methodology was effective for the treatment of EAD problems in Pará because it enables the management of uncertainties, what, we believe, leads to the reduction of occurrence of undesired and/or unexpected events.porAcesso AbertoAmazônia brasileiraEnsino à distânciaAvaliaçãoPará - EstadoTeseCNPQ::CIENCIAS HUMANAS::EDUCACAO::PLANEJAMENTO E AVALIACAO EDUCACIONAL