Variação da precipitação por método de interpolação geoestatística

Abstract

This article analyses the variation of rainfall in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic region in the last two decades, based upon the rain gauge stations of the ANA (Brazilian National Water Agency) HidroWeb database for the years 1983, 1993 and 2003. The information was systemized and treated with Hydrologic methods such as method of contour and interpolation for ordinary kriging. The treatment considered the consistency of the data, the density of the space distribution of the stations and the periods of study. The results demonstrated that the total volume of water precipitated annually did not change significantly in the 20 years analyzed. However, a significant variation occurred in its spatial distribution. By analyzing the isohyet it was shown that there is a displacement of the precipitation at Tocantins Baixo (TOB) of approximately 10% of the total precipitated volume. This displacement can be caused by global change, by anthropogenic activities or by regional natural phenomena. However, this paper does not explore possible causes of the displacement.