Artigos Científicos - ICSA

URI Permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.ufpa.br/handle/2011/2480

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Amazônia legal: análise de convergência da renda municipal com base em um modelo threshold
(2009-06) DINIZ, Marcelo Bentes; OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, José Nilo de; FERREIRA, Roberto Tatiwa; PAIXÃO, Alex Sandro da
This paper is an analysis of the process of convergence of income between the municipalities of the Legal Amazonia in the period of 1980 to 2004, trying to identify the existence of clubs of convergence using a model threshold. Results indicated for the formation of six clubs of convergence, among them shows a process of convergence between the clubs extremes. In general, human capital proved to be significant in explaining the process of growth of the groups of municipalities richer. The results also indicated that the physical capital was significantly negative for explaining the process of economic growth of most clubs of convergence, demonstrating in this way, a negative role for public investment undertaken in the districts of the region.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise da área desmatada municipal na Amazônia brasileira no período 2000-2004: uma abordagem com modelos não lineares
(2010-09) OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, José Nilo de; DINIZ, Marcelo Bentes; FERREIRA, Roberto Tatiwa; CASTELAR, Luiz Ivan de Melo; DINIZ, Márcia Jucá Teixeira
There is a great amount of asymmetry in the distribution of deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, particularly in the states of Mato Grosso, Pará and Rondônia, what it would be, in principle, associate with certain common characteristics of their productive activities such as cattle, timber cutting and, more recently, the expansion in the production of grains. However, it can be inquired if municipalities with similar economic characteristics can be grouped as clubs with respect to deforestation. The goal of this article was to test the club convergence hypothesis of deforested areas in the cities of the Legal Amazon in the period of 2000 to 2004. In order to reach the objectives considered, a threshold model based in Hansen (2000) was used. The empirical results corroborate the hypothesis, with respect to formation of four clubs of convergence.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Causas do desmatamento da Amazônia: uma aplicação do teste de causalidade de Granger acerca das principais fontes de desmatamento nos municípios da Amazônia Legal brasileira
(2009) DINIZ, Marcelo Bentes; OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, José Nilo de; TROMPIERI NETO, Nicolino; DINIZ, Márcia Jucá Teixeira
Many are the factors indicated by the pertinent literature concerning the causes of deforestation in Brazilian Legal Amazon. From endogenous aspects as the edafo-climatic conditions to aspects related to anthropic action, like the population movements, urban growth, and especially, the independent or induced actions of the different public and private economic agents who have acted in the region, historically configuring the processes of occupation of the land and economic exploitation of the Amazonian region. The objective of this article is to perform a causality test, in the Granger sense, in the main variables suggested as important that explain the deforestation of the Legal Amazon, in the period from 1997 to 2006. The methodology to be used is based on dynamic models for the panel data, developed by Holtz-Eakin et al. (1988) and Arellano-Bond (1991) who developed a causality test based on the seminal article of Granger (1969). Among the main results found is the empirical evidence that there is a bidirectional causality between deforestation and the areas of permanent and temporary cultures, as well as the size of the cattle herd.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Condicionantes socioeconômicos e ambientais dos clubes de convergência da renda na Amazônia Legal 1985 a 2007
(2011-12) SILVA, Gerson Medeiros da; OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, José Nilo de; DINIZ, Marcelo Bentes
This paper analyzes the formation of convergence clubs in Amazonia in the period 1985 to 2007 conditional on socio-economic, institutional and environmental. The innovative nature of this work is to test the first time the importance of deforestation and environmental condition of the formation of convergence clubs in the Amazon. A methodology through the nonparametric estimation of kernel densities, the transition matrix and estimation of stochastic kernels to test the evidence of convergence between the municipalities. The results confirmed the hypothesis of convergence, large intra-sectional dynamics of income and the formation of three convergence clubs among the municipalities of legal Amazonia. Human capital appears as a major constraint and the cattle and livestock area has low significance in determining the rent for municipal. Deforestation and institutional variables were not significant for economic growth municipalities of Amazonia.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Determinação dos clubes de convergência da renda per capita agrícola - uma análise para os municípios cearenses
(2009-12) OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, José Nilo de; DINIZ, Marcelo Bentes; CASTELAR, Luiz Ivan de Melo; FERREIRA, Roberto Tatiwa
This paper analyzes the process of agricultural county convergence in the state of Ceará using a threshold model in the period from 1970 to 1996. The results show the existence of four clubs of convergence. One formed by the group of richer counties; another one by the group of poor counties and two intermediate groups. The results intra-clubs show that both human capital and physical capital are important to explain the growth process of Ceará's agriculture. On the other hand land is important only for the two richer clubs.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Modelos de índice de difusão para prever a taxa de crescimento do PIB agrícola brasileiro
(2012-04) FERREIRA, Roberto Tatiwa; OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, José Nilo de; CASTELAR, Luiz Ivan de Melo
This article uses linear and nonlinear diffusion index models to forecast, one step ahead, the quarterly growth rate of Brazilian Agricultural GDP. These models are composed by common factor which allow a significant reduction in the number of the original explanatory variables. After comparing the forecasts of these two models between themselves and with the ones generated by an AR model, used as benchmark, one comes to the conclusion that among the diffusion index models, the nonlinear model with a threshold effect presents a small improvement, in terms of predictive efficiency, in relation to the linear and the AR models.

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