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O clima e a vulnerabilidade socioambiental: interações na região costeira da Amazônia.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2021-03-05) SILVA, Santos, Marcos Ronielly da; PEREIRA, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9883400404823218; VITORINO, Maria Isabel; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4813399912998401; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3253-5301
Coastal regions are the areas most affected by climate change, and therefore the most vulnerable, taking into account the intensity of climatic extremes and the great human concentration. In this context, this Doctoral Thesis work presents an analysis of the possible interactions of climate changes, associated with socioenvironmental processes, with a view to vulnerability in the coastal zone of the state of Pará. Specifically, we sought to: i) obtain the space-time variability precipitation in the coastal region of the Eastern Amazon; ii) know the distribution of physical and hydrological variables, during typical and atypical periods of climate and iii) examine the socio-environmental vulnerability of coastal municipalities in the face of climate change. Since climate change increases social and environmental vulnerability in the coastal region of the Amazon. For this purpose, standardized methodologies were used, adapted to each theme treated, with emphasis on the use of precipitation data by remote sensing of the technique - CMORPH, application of statistical analysis through Principal Component Analysis, Field collection through CTD for analysis of hydrological variables and identification of socio-environmental vulnerability using the Municipal Vulnerability Index (IVM) method. The main results found were: i) CMORPH evidenced the existence of a precipitation gradient in the two main rainfall modes, which explain 88% of the data variance. The first mode shows large-scale systems with rainy and less rainy periods. The second mode is associated with the occurrence of mesoscale systems. ii) rainfall and tides modulate local hydrological variables, showing greater variability in years of Dry and El Niño with greater complexity in open estuaries, a negative relationship between precipitation and salinity and a positive relationship with turbidity and chlorophyll was found, and iii) the most vulnerable municipalities are in the Marajó Island region - west of the study area, where the IVM varies between 1 (Afuá) and 0.55 (Soure) for scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The Sensitivity (ISe) and Sociodemographic (ISd) sub-indices showed the greatest influence on the current vulnerability of the municipalities. These results provide scientific subsidies for decision making at the municipal level, and can be replicated for other regions, aiming at the adaptation of societies to climate change.