Programa de Pós-Graduação em Gestão de Riscos e Desastres Naturais na Amazônia - PPGGRD/IG

URI Permanente desta comunidadehttps://repositorio.ufpa.br/handle/2011/9943

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Agora exibindo 1 - 8 de 8

Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise das variações da linha de costa na Ilha de Mosqueiro- PA ao longo de 17 anos
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2019-05-24) BRAGA, Carlos Alberto Oliveira; OLIVEIRA, Francisco de Souza; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8386440288477782
The average rates of coastline variation are one of the best indicators to determine the trend of the oscillatory behavior of any part of the coastline over time. The multi-temporal study of the coastline dynamics of the beach segments of Mosqueiro Island, PA, using the Landsat and Sentinel series of satellite imagery, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the European Space Agency (ESA) with the aid of the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), demonstrated that during the period from 2001 to 2018, the total linear mean change for all beach segments was -81.3 m at a rate of -9.67 m / year. The average linear retreat was - 160.77 m, while the average linear advance was 79.47 m, indicating a clear erosion tendency of the Mosqueiro Island coast. From the 11 beach segments analyzed (Baia do Sol, Paraíso, Marahú, Carananduba, São Francisco, Ariramba, Murubira, Porto Arthur, Bishop / Praia Grande, Bitar), in the western part of the Island, 06 (São Francisco, Ariramba, Murubira, Porto Arthur, Bishop / Praia Grande and Bitar) showed a trend of retreat of their coastlines, presenting average rates of variation from -1.00 m / year to -3.31 m / year, the highest rate belonging to the Bishop segment /Big beach. The segments of Baía do Sol, Paraíso, Marahú, Carananduba and Farol / Chapéu Virado were the only ones that presented a tendency to advance in their coastlines, presenting values of average rates varying from 0.30 m / year to 1.74 m / year. In addition to the study of the behavior of the coastline of the western part of Mosqueiro Island, the classification of the physical vulnerability to the coastal erosion of the Island was carried out. In general, the coastal zones of the island bathed by Guajará Bay, Furo das Marinhas and Furo do Maguari were classified as "high to very high", with the exception of some sectors located in the northwest, northeast and southeast of the island. were classified as "low to moderate" vulnerability. The most localized areas in the center of the island not directly impacted by oceanographic variables were classified as "very low to moderate"vulnerability, in addition to some contiguous areas that were classified as "high" vulnerability.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise de perdas econômicas geradas pela erosão em ambiente praiano: caso da praia de Ajuruteua – Bragança/PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018) RODRIGUES, Hygson da Silva; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594
The beach of Ajuruteua-PA, 36 km from the municipality seat of Bragança-Pará, has undergone constant morphological transformations due to the process of marine erosion. Such erosions have been causing disasters during periods of full tide (equinox and syzygy). In addition, the lack of planning in the management of the use and occupation of the territory caused several environmental consequences and the quality of life of the population. The objective of this work was to estimate the economic losses directly and indirectly generated by water erosion, through the Cost of Replacement Method (MVCR), and to contribute to the actions of civil defense in dealing with natural disasters. It also aims to collaborate with the planning and actions of public policies in order to avoid further harm to the population at risk, as well as to propose improvements for environmental management, the issue of territorial reordering and the social confrontation related to natural disasters. A questionnaire and checklist applied to a random sample of housing units can assess the costs of losses and damages caused by the phenomenon, as well as the application of the MVRC to analyze the losses for recovery / reconstruction or the total loss of the property without the recovery of the damage. The results indicate that there are many attempts to contain erosion along the coastline of Ajuruteua Beach, but these do not provide definitive solutions to the problem. Therefore, it is necessary to consider measures that reduce the exposure to the risk of facing disasters and prevent losses or high costs with the recovery, reconstruction or reallocation of properties and families that are resident in the region. The average Replacement Cost (CR) of the 81 buildings located in the tidal range, considering the average Internal Unit Cost (CUi) of R$ 34.708,76 and the Average External Unit Cost (CUe) of R$ 43.388,63; was R$ 6.325.889,40. Indicating that socioeconomic losses can be significant, and should be rethought in the direction of the management of coastal space.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise do potencial de risco de rompimento em barragens de rejeito de mineração do Estado do Pará utilizando a metodologia Risk-Based Profiling System (RBPS).
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-05-30) CONCEIÇÃO, Raimundo Almir Costa; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594
The serious and very serious socioenvironmental disasters related to disruption in mining tailings dams have been exhibiting worldwide, a growing tendency since the 1960s and this is directly related to the increasing production of waste. In this context, there is a fundamental necessity for risk and safety analyzes of these dams, which can be done through methods that estimate the probability occurrence of disruption events, in order to make the decision to have a process more focused and safe. One of these analyzes is the so-called Risk-Based Profiling System (RPBS), which allows us to gauge, from qualitative data, the probability of a disruption and its probable consequences, which comes from the four most frequent scenarios (static, hydrological, seismic and operation and maintenance). This analysis was applied to six mining dams in the State of Pará, municipalities of Parauapebas, Paragominas and Canaã dos Carajás. The results showed, in the universe of analysis, dam B3 was the one with the highest failure rate (455.18), followed by the dam B1 (428.63) and the dam B2 (375,66). However, the dam with the highest risk for downstream areas was B2 with a Total Risk Index of 969.20 points, mainly due to the large number of possible people affected (12,900 people). This same dam is the one that would affect the greatest number of socioenvironmental components, defined then with possible cause of extreme damages. Compared with the risk analysis established in law, the RBPS analysis showed similarities, but more detailed in function of the four scenarios of analysis that will be generated, rather than just one. A risk analysis guide for dams was created as well, which came out from this present study.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise do uso e ocupação do solo e mapeamento de áreas aterradas em Abaetetuba - PA.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-11-29) SILVA, Thamna Maíra Lourinho; BORGES, Maurício da Silva; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1580207189205228
On January 4, 2014, in the Municipality of Abaetetuba PA, there was a landfill collapse in the São João Neighborhood, which affected about 67 (sixty-seven) families, so that 13 (thirteen) houses were destroyed and 49 forty-nine) interdicted. According to the Geological Survey of Brazil, the area in which the disaster occurred was gradually landed by irregular residents (with a landfill composed of sand, clay, garbage and açaí stones), and without the proper monitoring of the Public Power. Therefore, the present work has the main objective to perform analysis of land use and occupation - from multitemporal analysis through the algorithm Maximum Likelihood - of the urban area of the municipality, as well as the mapping of land areas along the Preservation Areas Permanent - APP located in the surroundings of the city, based on the delimitations established by the New Forest Code, established by Law Nº. 12.651 of May 25, 2012. It was verified that the urban expansion has intensively pressed this special area and, based on analyzes concerning the use and occupation of the soil, it was verified that in a period of 28 years there was a reduction of 4.01 km2 of vegetation cover and, consequently, the growth of about 4 km2 of deforested areas in favor of urban expansion. When conducting field surveys regarding possible terraced areas around the city, it was concluded that there was grounding in all 14 (fourteen) points visited.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Inundações em Marabá: avaliação estratégica para declarar situação de emergência.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-05-04) BENTES, Klebson Loair Lázaro Mansos; MORAES, Bergson Cavalcanti de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8462634544908052
Natural disaster is a worldwide problem that every year have been increasing frequency and impacts, they are classified in geological, meteorological, climatological, hydrological and biological. The present study worked on the hydrological disaster (flood / flood). The study area chosen was Marabá-PA, due to the high incidence of flooding and the extensive area susceptible to this adverse event. In 21 years, in the period from 1991 to 2012 there were 17 records by Civil Defense. The objective of the research was to evaluate the parameters used to declare the alert situation, emergency situation and state of public calamity based on the fluviometric quota of the Tocantins River. The research developed was bibliographical and documentary; its database was the database of the institutions; river basin of the Tocantins River - National Water Agency; data from the municipality and the population of Marabá - Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics; to define the flood surface area - report of the Research Company and Mineral Resources; to estimate the number of buildings in flood risk area - Amazon Protection System. In the period delimited for conducting the research (1972 to 2015) it was possible to verify that in most of these years the fluviometric quota of the Tocantins River reached impact footage; the characteristics of the population of Marabá and specifically of the area of risk are of vulnerabilities to the flood impacts. The Product was developed to characterize the potential of disaster intensity to declare a warning situation, emergency situation and state of public calamity based on fluviometric quota of the Tocantins River and number of buildings affected.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Modelagem hidrológica para extremos de inundações e secas para o município de Boa Vista em Roraima.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-09-24) CARVALHO, Adriana Alves de; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313369423727020
The present research is based on statistical methods applied as an analysis tool in the study of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere in the up and down behavior of the Branco river in Boa Vista. Individual associations for years of floods and droughts conditioned to the oceanic component, evaluated by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the monitored areas of Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3.4, Niño 3, Niño 4 and North Atlantic Tropical (ATN); (PD) and Tahiti (PT) regions were evaluated through the acquisition of monthly climatic data from the Climate Prediction Center in 1982-2016. These associations aimed to investigate if these areas present favorable indicatives for extreme years of floods and droughts. Significant correlations were found above 0.5 in most flood and drought events in the following areas: Niño 1 + 2, Tropical Atlantic North, both with a lag time of 4 months, and the Darwin and Tahiti regions, but the effects of these variables to change the fluviometric regime of the White River in Boa Vista is 6 months. This information obtained through the calculation of the correlation coefficient (r) allowed the use of the Least Squares Method to model the prediction of the variability of flood and drought events induced by the seasonality of the Branco river. The long-term trends and numerical oscillations reproduced by the model for both scenarios were compared with the level measurements for the period 2011-2016. The results showed good performance of the model, with a percentage error of 30% for the prediction of drought events and 34% for those of floods, thus indicating that the selected input components exert a great contribution in the predictability of hydrological extremes in Boa Vista. Given this, it is suggested that this study can become operational in the monitoring centers of the state of Roraima, as a tool to support planning actions in the period of floods and droughts.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Sistema hidrológico para previsão de risco na Amazônia utilizando redes neurais.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2019-03-02) PERES, Victor da Cruz; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313369423727020
The estimation of the future behavior of the levels of a river basin is fundamental for the elaboration of the plan of management of its water resources. The objective of this research was to model the relationship between rainfall and level through a technique known as artificial neural networks (RNA). RNAs are empirical models with functions similar to the functioning of the human brain. In this research, the ability of RNA to model the rain-level process on a daily basis was evaluated. Influences of network architecture, initialization of weights, and extension of data series were considered during RNA training. The five RNAs that produced the best results were confronted with the observed results. The results were very satisfactory. Finding in a dry and full alert system in Itaituba-Pa.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Sistema regional de monitoramento de seca.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2019-02-01) PEDROSA, João Paulo da Costa; MORAES, Bergson Cavalcanti de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8462634544908052
Drought is a natural phenomenon of meteorological origin, due to a precipitation deficit, which is verified every year in different regions of the globe, being therefore a recurring feature of the climate and not a rare occurrence. A drought situation can result in a natural disaster if there is no local resilience as a capacity for managing water resources to minimize their adverse effects. In many regions, as in developing countries, the consequences of droughts reach such a magnitude that they are often classified as catastrophic, causing famine, deaths and population exoduses. Considering this problem, the present study adapted a physical-mathematical model for the local conditions able to monitor drought based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (ISSP) through changes in latitude, field capacity, water balance of Thornthwaite and the data of the files needed to calculate the index. The model used precipitation and air temperature data from 1987 to 2014. The model also had to be compiled for the C ++ language. We obtained as an answer an index with better reliability by the fact of using data with high resolution and more representative for the Amazon region.

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