Validação de diferentes modelos matemáticos aplicados na previsão de desempenho de geradores fotovoltaicos

Abstract

Among the devices that guarantee the generation of electricity through the photovoltaic conversion process the module is the basic unit of a photovoltaic generator. The literature review revealed that exists various mathematical models used to predict the performance of modules. However, in general, they can be classified into two categories: power models and models based on the equivalent photovoltaics cell/module circuits. Therefore, in this work 14 models were selected, being 11 of power, 2 based on equivalent circuits and 1 which is the composition of both, but all with the objective of estimating the maximum power (Pmp), which reflects the desired operating point on a given system. The evaluation process of the selected models was made from two statistical approaches: the descriptive, also referred to as traditional; and the comparative, which seeks to relate the estimates versus the measured values and admitted as reference. For this, 4 different photovoltaic modules were used, but of the same technology (polycrystalline), experimentally measured using a monitoring system installed in the testing area of the Study Group and Development of Energy Alternatives (GEDAE / UFPa). Statistical evaluations made it possible to identify the most adherent models, both in terms of precision and accuracy. However, it is important to emphasize that this is not enough to determine a single best model, because depending on the application objectives, it may be that the effort is a determining factor, or even more important than its accuracy. Thus, besides the statistical evaluations, at the end of this work an ordinal classification of the models is presented, considering a compromise relationship established between precision, accuracy and effort.