Influência de inundações no valor de aluguel de imóveis comerciais em Belém, Brasil

Abstract

The real estate appraisal might be driven by externalities, such as surrounding, locational, and natural attributes. In residential property studies, flood influence in housing valuation is a well-known subject; however, there is a gap in commercial real estate. Thus, this thesis sought to assess if flood influences commercial property rents in Belém-PA, Northern Brazil, a city where flood-prone areas concentrate the most significant retail activity. To this, OLS regression models predicted the impact of flood-prone-zone locations on the marginal rents in a 586 commercial property database. The results revealed that highly flood-prone zones reduce commercial rents by 9.78% rather than in no flood-prone ones. It decreased 3.26% in rent values between each flood-prone zone (low, medium, and high). When moderated by the property frontage, the impact of flood-prone zone diminished because more prominent facades induced more consumer attraction, thus demand. The sensitive analysis revealed an accuracy in predicting commercial rents ranging from 13 to 36 reais per square meter. The scientific-added value concerns the novelty approach in evaluating flood influence in commercial property rents in emerging country scenarios. Besides, it assists investors by using the econometric model as a decision-maker support tool to acquire commercial real estate