Vulnerabilidade socioambiental e análise de risco aos extremos de precipitação no estado do Pará.

Abstract

In the context of scientific themes related to the global/regional climate change, the extreme climate events deserve special attention because they represent natural threats to society and ecosystems. In Brazil, such events are primarily associated with scarcity or excessive rainfall with direct impact on the various sectors of society, whose consequences tend to be more severe in cities with greater vulnerability. In the present work, we used an interdisciplinary approach about socio-environmental vulnerability (covering the dimensions of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity), combined with the exposure factor of climatic extremes (represented by extreme events associated with deficits and excess precipitation), aiming at the end to establish an integrated diagnosis of socio-environmental/climatic risk in the state of Pará. The analysis scale is municipal and the objective methodology based on indicators of different natures was applied in the 143 municipalities along the state. The socio-environmental/climatic risk (RISC) was calculated according to the index of climatic extremes (EXTCLI) and the socio-environmental vulnerability index (VSA), all classified into three categories (low, medium and high). The results in terms of the municipal base were spatialized throughout the state and showed that the highest frequencies of EXTCLI are located in the northeast portion (mesoregions of Baixo Amazonas and Marajó). The political indicators related to the coping and adaptive capacity showed an unsatisfactory performance (low category), showing inefficiency in legislation, actions and measures to protect the most vulnerable population from a short- and long-term point of view. In the risk analysis along the state, nine municipalities with RISC high category were highlighted (the majority located over the island of Marajó), in which a high category in terms of exposure and vulnerability was evidenced. Considering the findings of the present study, the RISC analysis approach allowed an integrated diagnosis on a municipal scale that is appropriate to subsidize the medium/long-term planning of the adaptation and mitigation actions in the face of climate change, particularly in the state of Pará.