Clima urbano de Belém, Pará: percepção climática, climatologia e modelagem atmosférica.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of urbanization on Belém’s climate and how part of its population perceives climate change. Belém’s climate and the urban – atmospheric interaction were studied with meteorological station data and with simulations of three different soil cover scenarios (urbanization in 2017, 1986 and a scenario where all urbanization was replaced by forest) for the Belém’s Metropolitan Region (considered as the main urban areas of Belém, Ananindeua and Marituba) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The perception analysis was made via a questionnaire applied in four places with different socio and environmental characteristics. These places were select from the Socio – Environmental Typology Map that was developed using 2010 Census data and satellite image. From the four sites, two of them represent well vegetated and verticalized region, with medium/high income population and low demographic density (typology Type III). The other two places represent areas with sparse vegetation, with low houses, low income population and high demographic density (Type I). The results showed that, regardless of the typology, the questionnaire participants noticed changes in the climate of Belém. According to them, due to the development of local urbanization, Belém is warmer and with higher precipitation variability. The Belém weather station corroborated this perception, but stations in nearby municipalities have also warmed in recent years, making it difficult to link this change with urbanization. However, there is a greater accumulation of precipitation in Belém, which was not observed on the other stations data, and from the WRF results it was observed that the current characteristics of the RMB (Belém Metropolitan Region) can intensify the development of local convective systems, causing stronger storms and consequently higher accumulation of precipitation due to increased vertical wind shear and available energy for convection. Although the participants have perceived these changes and have been impacted by them (different for each typology, but mainly health and financial issues), most of them do not know how to adapt their life to this new climate scenario or adapts inefficiently to it due to a lack of knowledge, time and/or financial resources. However, when it comes to Belém itself, the interviewees were able to suggest adaptation strategies that can have a significant impact on the local climate and even minimize the effects of urbanization on the atmosphere.