Confiabilidade aplicada à análise da estabilidade de taludes: um estudo de caso de uma encosta fluvial no norte amazônico

Abstract

Among the geotechnical structures, the river slopes stand out for the uncertainties in their properties. In addition, the use of coupled reliability methods in the analysis of slopes has grown, in contrast to deterministic methods that do not consider uncertainties. In this context, the present work presents the study of the reliability of a fluvial slope in the Amazon region that suffered a rupture. For this, three reliability methodologies were used (Monte Carlo, FOSM and PEM), using the limit equilibrium method and finite elements. The properties of the hillside soft clays were treated as random variables and the reliability indicators for each methodology were obtained. In addition, sensitivity analyzes of these parameters were carried out. The results of the slice models were compared to the numerical results. Finally, it was concluded that the uncertainties in the properties of soft soils were not sufficient to cause the rupture of the slope, therefore, another factor(s) must have triggered the rupture.