O uso do resgate histórico no mapeamento dos rios aterrados e suas influências em alagamentos na cidade de Belém/Pa

Abstract

Accurate and timely estimates of changes in water bodies are pertinent to understanding and investigating floods around the world. However, these investigations are hampered by the lack of measurements and lack of in situ cataloging of the history of the course of water bodies in most regions. Measurements based on historical documentation, based on old documents, provide a potential way to quantify changes in water storage in a municipality and, consequently, understand the reasons why potential areas are prone to flooding. This study addresses the quantification of changes in the storage of water bodies in the city of Belém, state of Pará, northern region of Brazil, through the mapping bias by historical rescue of old documents (since 1684), using data from the Middle High Line of Belém from 1831 that maps the marine lands and authored by the Superintendence of Heritage of the Union (SPU), as well as old documents that study the history of the Urban Geography of Belém. In order to evaluate the performance, the estimates of changes will be compared with methodologies such as official data of flood areas released by the Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM) in 2015, and relate the evidence with the historical change. Finally, in addition to a projection of the past and study of the present, a future projection of these scenarios will be made using geostatistical models for areas with potential chances of flooding. This study has implications for improving the understanding of the dynamics of water bodies, also informing regional water managers about the situation of the systems with regard to this theme.