Interação entre secas e inundações na Amazônia: desafios para a gestão de riscos de eventos extremos

Abstract

Extreme natural events, such as droughts and floods, have been intensifying in the Amazon over recent decades, causing severe impacts on local populations, especially in urban and riverside communities. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of extreme natural events - floods and droughts - as well as their combination and the resulting impacts on integrated risk management. This study was conducted in the Northern Region of Brazil, which comprises seven federal units and accounts for 45% of the national territory, encompassing 450 municipalities. Data from the Survey of Basic Municipal Information, conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and the Integrated Disaster Information System, from the National Secretariat for Protection and Civil Defense, were used. The multiple correspondence analysis technique was applied to examine associations among nominal variables across various categories. The results indicate that the occurrence of floods and droughts in municipalities in the Northern Region from 2013 to 2024 is significantly influenced by climate variability modulated by the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, with a growing trend. Moreover, few municipalities have strategic instruments in place to organize local responses to extreme events. Only 62 municipalities (15.2%) have plans focused on floods, and 60 (15.8%) have plans for droughts. The study highlights the need to strengthen municipal governance in risk and disaster management, with an emphasis on federal induction of integrated public policies, investment in territorial planning, and continuous training for municipal managers and technical staff.