Otimização e análise de risco da capacidade portuária da bacia amazônica, quanto ao crescimento da demanda de grãos e ao porte dos navios

Abstract

Maritime transport in recent years has brought about a great change in ports around the world due to the advancement of technology which allowed the construction of increasingly larger vessels to reduce freight and transport more cargo. Aware of this reality, this work develops an assessment of port terminals in the Amazon basin, using queuing theory combined with risk analysis and optimization to evaluate port capacity in the face of future grain demands for the region, given that with the advance technology, larger ships are being manufactured and capable of transporting large amounts of cargo, with this advance, the existing ports need to adapt their infrastructure according to the new trends in shipbuilding. In this dissertation, data was collected of movement of cargo and capacity of the existing port terminals in the Amazon region with a focus on long-haul export terminals. A model was developed using the queuing theory to gauge the capacity of terminals and the productivity of ships for use in the @RISK platform, which uses optimization combined with risk analysis, generating distribution and tornado graphs, enabling the analysis of the terminals. help in decision-making on the performance of terminals and ships in an integrated manner. The research allows, through generated simulations, the analysis of various scenarios for the movement of grain from these terminals and the impact that larger ships will bring to the region's port infrastructure. Considering that the estimated movement of terminals in the Amazon basin for 2030 is approximately 60 million tons, where it was observed that the terminals are not prepared to achieve this stipulated target if they do not invest in their development.