Relação entre o clima, a densidade de mosquitos em floresta e a distribuição de endemias na Amazônia Oriental.

Abstract

The climate in the Amazon has been changing, mainly due to human activities causing the proliferation of insects, responsible for the spread of diseases, is influenced by the behavior atmospheric variables. The Caxiuanã National Forest, which is a conservation unit (CU) that presents between 80% and 85% of upland primary forest, having high diversity and species richness. In this context, this study aims to understand the influence of climate change on the density of mosquitoes and on the spread of endemics in the forest region and its surroundings in the Eastern Amazon. For that, climatic data obtained from BDMET / INMET (1978 to 2017) and at the LBA Tower installed at the Ferreira Pena Scientific Station (ECFPn) were used, Pacífic (IOS) and Atlantic (MMA) climatic indexes on the NOAA website and morbidity data on the SAGE/MS website. The results show statistics compiled between climate, Malaria (MAL), dengue (DNG) and American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) that affect the region during the period from 2001 to 2017. The climatic variability shows an increase (per decade) in its levels, with a reduction in the humidity indexes of the air, showing that changes in land use and cover denote changes in the climate, with greater influence of the Pacific indicator over the region's rains. The statistical correlations between climate variability showed a non-linear correlation both with the density of mosquitoes and with endemics. The eigenvectors indicate that the variables that most influenced endemic diseases were air temperature and rain. In view of this scenario, we conclude that the region showed significant variation in climatic indices, contributing to increases in the average air temperature indices in primary forests, causing a significant increase in the density of vector mosquitoes, tending to increase the number of morbidities in the region.