Impactos das mudanças climáticas na biomassa florestal Amazônica: Previsão de perda e estratégias de conservação prioritárias para o potencial de biomassa sob as mudanças climáticas

Abstract

The study addresses the influence of climate change on Aboveground Biomass (AGB) in the Amazon, examining both reduction forecasts and potential increases under different climate scenarios until the end of the century. Using AGB data (GEDI) and climate variables from Global Circulation Models (GCM‘s) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP‘s), the research employs Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to explore spatial patterns of AGB distribution. The results point to a significant decline in AGB, with estimated reductions ranging from 14.2% to 32.1%, where the average vegetation density could drop to 177.61 Mg/ha-1 by 2040 and 140.43 Mg/ha-1 by 2100, indicating a decrease in the forest's carbon sequestration capacity, especially in the northeast, central-east, west, and south regions of the Amazon. Conversely, potential AGB gains were identified in specific areas of the Brazilian Amazon, mainly in the northwest and southeast regions, covering the Negro, Xingu, and Tapajós river basins, under both future scenarios. Indigenous Lands (TI‘s) emerge as crucial for conservation, exhibiting greater AGB gains in both scenarios analyzed. This study underscores the importance of mitigation strategies and the role of protected areas in maintaining Amazon resilience in the face of future climate adversities. By highlighting areas of potential AGB increase, it emphasizes the significance of preserving and valuing protected areas and TI‘s as fundamental strategies to address environmental and climate challenges. This approach not only focuses on mitigating AGB loss but also recognizes the potential of specific regions to positively contribute to Amazon resilience amid future climate changes. Therefore, this study is of great importance for both science and public policy formulations, as it provides an analysis of the impact of AGB climate change in the Amazon, essential in the carbon cycle and, by extension, in mitigating global climate change. By identifying vulnerable regions and those with potential AGB increase, it highlights the urgency of targeted conservation strategies.