Impactos socioambientais atuais e de mudanças futuras na hidroclimatologia da bacia do rio Tapajós na Amazônia

Abstract

The intensification of land use and land cover has been increasing environmental and climatic problems in the Amazonian sub-basins, especially in the Tapajos River basin, which is important not only for the region, but for the whole country in terms of economic and socio-environmental issues. This research evaluated the increasing pressure imposed on the Tapajos River basin from the unsustainable use of water resources, deforestation on meteorological variables and the future hydroclimatology of the basin for the next 30 and 60 years. On the water issue, significant environmental impacts were observed in the Upper and Middle Tapajos, where unsustainable uses of water resources were identified from the various sectors of the economy, with emphasis on the increase in the number of industries and hydroelectric plants. Conversely, in the Lower Tapajos region there are still significant portions of conserved vegetation cover, which are essential for favoring evapotranspiration and, consequently, cloud formation, but an increase in the unsustainable use of water resources was observed in the region. In the relationship between deforestation and climate, it was noted the existence of correlations between deforestation rates and positive variations in temperature in the Middle Lower Tapajos region. However, no significant variations in precipitation were observed, but there is a slight negative trend (reduction), corroborating the anomaly and trend studies. In the future hydroclimatology, the results showed that the future impacts of climate change on precipitation and elevation measures, both for a more proximate climate (2021-2050) and for a climate at the end of the century (2051-2080), taking into account the moderate and pessimistic scenarios. It was also noted that there will be changes in the frequency of maximum and minimum extremes of precipitation and quota, especially in the regions of the Middle Lower Tapajos, being more sensitive to these changes at the Itaituba station.