Mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra e as perspectivas da abordagem nexus água, alimento e ecossistemas em bacias hidrográficas costeiras do Nordeste Paraense, Amazônia Oriental

Abstract

The Amazon is increasingly gaining global spotlight, despite chronically suffering the massive destruction of its ecosystems. In this context, this thesis focused on the question “to what extent will changes in land use and cover modify the landscapes of watersheds in the Eastern Amazon by 2030 and how do these changes imply the achievement of environmental goals to promote sustainable development?”. Thus, three scientific articles were prepared, where the first two dealt with the region’s spatio-temporal changes in the recent past and near future, and the third designed an integrated Nexus approach of water, food and ecosystem indicators, aligned with current environmental policies. In the first article, the dynamics of the landscapes of three watersheds between 1985 and 2019 were evaluated. The results revealed a significant conversion from forest to pasture of approximately 1,000 km², with an increase in forest fragments from 2547 to 6604, highlighting the importance of measures conservation and recovery of vegetation for the maintenance of local ecosystems. In the second article, simulations of future land cover scenarios for the region were carried out, with an emphasis on deforestation and its greenhouse gas emissions, under three hypothetical scenarios. The results indicated that, regardless of the scenario, the region could face a significant increase in deforestation and emissions by 2030, with deforestation varying from 90 thousand hectares to 125 thousand hectares, and respective greenhouse gas emissions between 3.67% and 5.09% of total emissions of the Pará State, highlighting the urgency of implementing policies for the conservation and recovery of native vegetation. In the third article, the interconnection of water, food and ecosystem indicators was explored, under the backdrop of the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda and the Amazon Now State Plan. We identified some challenges, such as low environmental compliance and high pressure on water and forestry resources. However, opportunities for improvements were also identified, such as encouraging the adoption of agroforestry systems, the recovery of permanent preservation areas around water resources and the use of thriving crops from the Amazon bioeconomy, as they can result in socioeconomic and environmental improvements in the region. In summary, the studies demonstrated the complexity of environmental changes in the Eastern Amazon and the importance of an integrated approach to address pressing challenges. For a successful experience, actions must be coordinated between governments, local communities and other stakeholders, in order to guarantee the conservation of local ecosystems and the well-being of current and future generations.