Metodologia de análise de risco de investimento em projetos de eficiência energética com aplicação no aproveitamento da biomassa residual do dendê na Amazônia

Abstract

The promotion of renewable energies in search of strategies to mitigate climate change is a major global challenge, especially for developing countries like Brazil looking to diversify its energy mix from renewable sources, but has an investment cost constraints. In this context, we need tools that measure the risks of investing in alternative energy sources projects. This work contributes to the sustainable development of the Amazon through the development of a risk analysis methodology of investment in energy efficiency projects applied the use of biomass from palm oil. The increasing production of palm oil in the Amazon region to generate food and biodiesel is generating a large volume of biomass. It was found that the use of the residue of the oil palm biomass for power generation and trading in the market increases its economic value, for both identified the criteria and indicators (C & I) of sustainable palm oil chain grouping them into: economic , environmental, social and technical. Qualifying and quantifying the risks affecting the identified indicators. This procedure was analyzed in three future scenarios for economic growth in Brazil that were built in the scenarios marked present in the National Energy Plan 2030.