O Dendê na Amazônia: reflexo socioeconômico, crescimento de cidades e dinâmica espacial do desmatamento no polo de produção do Pará

Abstract

The cultivation of oil palm in the Amazon was conceived as a policy to promote biofuels associated with inclusive and sustainable local development, especially in rural areas. Studies involving oil palm plantations in the state of Pará, a producer hub, focus on the rural socio-environmental impacts of the crop, highlighting aspects such as changes in land use and socio-economic implications for family farmers. However, the expressive growth of oil palm in Pará cannot be dissociated from its impact on municipalities and, mainly, cities that develop around this culture. The potential of this export-oriented agricultural system to generate externalities that lead to urban and non-agricultural economic growth, and to cause potential spillovers from deforestation to neighboring municipalities is still little known. In this study, the social consequences, the growth of cities and the spatial dynamics of deforestation in the production pole of the state of Pará were evaluated. Specifically, the objective was: (1) To review and evaluate the main public policies that encouraged the cultivation of oil palm in the Amazon and the socio-environmental effects of these plantations in the northeast of Pará, specifically in the microregion of Tomé-Açu; (2) Assess the spillover effects of oil palm production in the largest Brazilian producing region, focusing on the urban and non-agricultural impact on economic growth, demography and the labor market in the period from 2002 to 2017; and (3) Investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of deforestation in the oil palm agribusiness hub through empirical evidence on the importance of neighborhood effects (spatial effect) in the response to deforestation in the state's oil palm producing municipalities in the period between 2003 and 2017. To meet the first objective, this study carried out a documentary analysis for the period 2005 to 2016, in which family farmers were satisfied with the income from the production of oil palm fruits, while there were non-conformities between the original sustainability guidelines and the social inclusion provided for in government programs to encourage oil palm production, which suggests a lack of monitoring and inspection by the State. The second objective was achieved through econometric data analysis on a random effect panel and with structural break analysis. The results showed that the oil palm activity fostered non-agricultural sectors (eg, service sectors), contributing to the formal non-agricultural labor market, generating taxes in the surrounding cities and industrial dynamization, mainly from 2010, coinciding with the period implementation of the incentive policy. The third objective was achieved via spatial lag models. The results showed changes in the variables correlated with deforestation over the period studied. Before the incentive policy (Sustainable Palm Oil Production Program - PPSOP), pasture area was directly correlated and GDP per capita was inversely correlated with deforestation. Oil palm production was not correlated with deforestation. In the year of launch of the PPSOP, the number of inhabitants was strongly correlated with deforestation, probably associated with an increase in immigration rates. In the post-PPSOP period, the value of oil palm production was negatively correlated with deforestation. Therefore, in the period studied, oil palm did not affect deforestation or was associated with its reduction. After the PPSOP, once again, pasture area was positively correlated and GDP per capita was negatively correlated with deforestation. Furthermore, the spatial dynamics of deforestation showed that neighboring municipalities influenced deforestation behavior mainly through two types of classifications: high (High-High) and low (Low-Low) deforestation. The general conclusion of this study was that oil palm has generated economic growth in the surrounding cities, contributing to the reduction of deforestation in the production hub of Pará, but still with difficulties in the mechanisms of social inclusion advocated by the incentive policies. The spatial effect, represented here by the interaction of deforestation rates between neighboring municipalities, proved to be a relevant factor in the investigation of deforestation dynamics in the region. Given the observed intersectorial links and lesser environmental impact on remaining forests, it constitutes a promising economic activity for the region, although with a potential effect on other variables that produce negative externalities. The limitations imposed by the scope of this study keep open the understanding of other dimensions of sustainability pursued by policies to encourage oil palm. Strengthening the sector's competitiveness and permanent monitoring of the direct and indirect socio-environmental impacts of oil palm production could contribute to promoting improvements in the development indicators of the region of production.