Modelagem da palma de óleo na Amazônia: redução da adequabilidade climática até o final do século

Abstract

The Amazon has historically suffered from deforestation. From the end of the 1960s to the present day, the occupation process has always been carried out in a disorderly manner. In addition to this fact, there are local problems characteristic of the Amazon region, such as land grabbing and invasion. Therefore, such factors help to explain why the Amazon region has extensive deforested and abandoned areas. This work highlights oil palm monoculture as an alternative to reintegrate and transform abandoned areas into productive areas. Additionally, the importance of oil palm production for the global and local market is presented, and how climate change may affect oil palm production in future scenarios. A surface model developed by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) is used to estimate oil palm production. This study was conducted in an oil palm monoculture with interspecific hybrid (HIE), generated from the cross between the species Elaeis guineensis Jacq (African) and Elaeis oleifera (Kunth) Cortés (American). Subsequently, by building a species distribution model, we estimate how areas climatically suitable for oil palm cultivation may change in the future, based on IPCC climate change scenarios.