Artigos Científicos - NUMA

URI Permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.ufpa.br/handle/2011/3274

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Brasil como epicentro da crise da Covid-19 na América Latina e as prováveis consequências em estratificações socioeconômicas mais vulneráveis: uma perspectiva de compreensão do papel do estado e da social democracia centrada em John Maynard Keynes
(Universidad del Zulia, 2020-12) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; CARVALHO, David Ferreira; SANTOS, Cleyson Silva dos
In 2020, the structure of capitalism and liberalism proclaimed by several coun tries, including Brazil, was badly shaken by a serious health crisis. The enemy this time is invisible: COVID-19, an infectious disease, caused by the new coro navirus, declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Be cause of the COVID-19 mortality rate in Brazil, the country has become the epi center of the Latin America crisis. The economy has begun to emanate typical signs of a recession with projections of a decline in the GDP of up to 6.25%. In terms of socioeconomic stratification, the pandemic has accentuated social inequality, revealing old anomalies regarding the poor distribution of income, generating a greater deepening of poverty, a significant increase in unemplo yment and, principally, a worsening of racial, cultural, age, ethnic and gender discrimination. With this prolegomena in mind, it is possible to arrive at the fundamental objective of the article: to understand the role of the State and of social democracy - inspired by the theory of John Maynard Keynes – in times of the novel coronavirus and of the liberalist, authoritarian, denialist manage – ment of the President, Jair Messias Bolsonaro. To achieve this objective, the article will make use of exploratory and qualitative research methodology. The main conclusion is that Brazil urgently needs to rescue the welfare state – defended by Keynes – within the framework of social democracy, under threat of entering a state of conflagration and suffering a major post-coronavirus econo- mic depression with negative consequences for more vulnerable socio-econo- mic stratifications.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
A concepção de movimentos cíclicos em tempos de crise pandêmica: implicações socioeconômicas da Covid-19 no Brasil
(Unversidad del Zulia, 2022-07) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; CARVALHO, David Ferreira; CASTRO, Auristela Correa
Economic cycles have a dynamic that manifests itself in the form of waves. The inflection from the economic boom phase to the recession phase is the moment of crisis. Disregarded by many, it can be said that the effects of the pandemic crisis resulting from Covid-19 have gained typical implications of a major global crisis, especially in Brazil. In this pandemic scenario, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), the global economy has been inserted into a serious socioeconomic crisis. The fundamental objective of this article is to discuss the conceptual conception of crisis and cyclical movements in times of the Covid-19 pandemic and the main socioeconomic implications in Brazil. To achieve this objective, the article will use exploratory and qualitative research methodology. The main conclusion is that the pandemic crisis brought to Brazil a series of economic problems, such as unemployment and high inflation, but the most serious fact was the social problems, mainly the significant increase in poverty and social inequality. . The use of “auxílio emergencial”, as a counter-cyclical policy and to support the most vulnerable social stratifications in times of a pandemic, was extremely important for having created a “mattress” of social protection. However, based on a series of official data, it can be said that the Bolsonaro government was unable to succeed in its endeavor to mitigate the socioeconomic impacts of the Covid-19 crisis in Brazil, much of it due to denialist rhetoric and a lot of disinformation (fake news) about vaccines.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
O déficit do sistema previdenciário brasileiro: análise econômica para o período de 1995-2018
(Universidad del Zulia, 2019-09) CARVALHO, André Cutrim; CARVALHO, David Ferreira; AIRES, Alana Paula de Araújo
At the present juncture, the social security model in Brazil represents a serious structural problem of Brazilian public accounts. It is precisely in this context that the country is undergoing the need for emergency imposition of a “pension reform” with the purpose, above all, of making the constitutional rights of Brazilian workers more flexible. In general terms, the problem of the social security deficit is caused by the financial imbalance of the Brazilian social security system, which is manifested at the moment that the income is less than the expense. This problem characterizes the crisis of the social security system, which is due to several reasons: 1) gradual aging of the population; 2) reduction of population growth; 3) difficulty in making changes or adjustments to the rules of pensions through a pension reform; and 4) changes in the labor market. In this context, we identify the research problem; we can formulate, from now on, the fundamental objective of this article: to investigate and subsequently discuss the determinant causes of the deficit of the social security regime in between 2005- 2018, which put the country in this in a crisis condition. The main conclusion is that part of social security revenue, instead of financing pensions, is simply diverted to other uses or used as an available financial asset, which ends up imparting a vain idea of a high primary surplus by reducing net debt consolidating the Union, providing an imaginary perception of sustainability to the federal government’s solvency indicators and the Central Bank’s credibility with the financial market.

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