Os efeitos das mudanças climáticas e do uso da terra no cultivo de cacau no bioma amazônico brasileiro.

Abstract

“Climate change” has become an increasingly recurrent theme in intergovernmental meetings, as it suggests the establishment of a new normal, with the potential to challenge plant species and their ability to survive under conditions not analogous to current ones. Agriculture is one of the sectors of human activity most vulnerable to climate change, with some studies indicating that climate change could cause a reduction in world agricultural production. Thus, it is necessary to prepare interdisciplinary works in order to measure the possible effects caused by climate change to this productive sector. Therefore, this work aims to analyze the impacts of climate change and land use on cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon biome in 2050. In general, the results indicated that there will be a clear loss of suitability for the occurrence of cocoa in the scenarios and with that, there may be an increase in areas not recommended for cocoa cultivation. The areas of high and medium potential for cocoa production will be located, mainly, in the state of Rondônia and in the northeast of the state of Pará in both scenarios analyzed (RCP4.5 and 8.5). In addition, it was possible to identify probable significant losses in production of 92.92 and 95.28% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This could affect about 20,550 establishments, that is, thousands of rural producers. Therefore, it was concluded that climate change will have a negative impact on cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome.