Teses em Ciências Ambientais (Doutorado) - PPGCA/IG

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Mudanças de uso da terra em paisagens agrícolas com palma de óleo (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) e implicações para a biodiversidade arbórea na Amazônia Oriental
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2015-09-30) ALMEIDA, Arlete Silva de; VIEIRA, Ima Célia Guimarães; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3761418169454490
The expansion of oil palm in the Amazon is associated with a number of public policy, in the form of actions and programs and has provoked economic and ecological changes in the region and challenge the society to monitor and control the palm cultivation expansion on a large scale. The municipalities from the "Palm region" in Pará state, as Moju, intensified cultivation of this palm tree and suffered intense modifications in thier natural ecosystems. In Addition this new frontier of bioenergy challenged the paradigm of sustainability, with social and environmental conflicts and replacement of subsistence farming by the palm. Little is known about the consequences that a large-scale monoculture can cause in the amazonian environment. To follow this new productive dynamic with palm oil are required interdisciplinary studies that contribute to identify how environmental respond to changes associated to the new agricultural frontier with oil palm. In this context, the overall objective of this research is to analyze the changes, the conflicts and the trajectories of land uses, as well as the value of conservation of the biodiversity of the plantations of oil palm and other land uses predominate in eastern Pará. The work is organized into five chapters including the first one which introduce the subject of the thesis. The other four are guided by the following specificobjectives: a) analyze the land use conflicts in Moju county, Pará state, Brazil, within areas of permanent preservation -PPA, according with the Brazilian Forest Code of 2012; b) map and quantify the types of land cover and land use in 2013 in three areas (Ubá, Arauaí e Mamorana), where the implementation of oil palm cultivation is present; c) capture the space-time variability in the changes of trajectories in landscapes of 1991-2013 and identify the effect of changes of land use in the structure of the landscape; and d) investigate the variation in the carbon stock and species richness of trees in different land use and vegetation cover in the three studied areas. For the study of conflicts in APPs in Moju, were used 29 multispectral images of high resolutions by RapidEye satellite of 2010. The results show that the area destined legally for permanent preservation (APP) in Moju is 47,357.06 ha, representing 5.21% of the municipal area. The PPAs with natural vegetation represent 68.60% of the APPs of the municipal area, about 28% of the PPAs have use conflicting with predominance of pasture in 15.6%. Only 0.63% of APPs is occpupied by palm oil. The application of the new recomposition guidelines for APPs according to the new Forest Code will result in the loss of 60.69% of the APP-recovered areas in this municipality. The analysis of vegetation cover and land use in 2013 in the three selected areas (Ubá, Arauaí and Mamorana) was made by the method of decision tree in images of the satellite Landsat-8 year of 2013. The overall performance of the classification was 0.87% (index kappa). The results show greater extension of primary forests in Mamorana, area in the beginning of cultivating oil palm. Agriculture predominate in all areas analysed. For the analyses of trajectories changes of land uses and the effects on the landscape structure i the landscape we made classification using decision tree method in images of the satellite Landsat TM-5 for the years 1991, 1995, 2001, 2005 and 2010, and Landsat-8 for the year 2013, through the ImgToos programs, ENVI and ArcGIS. The landscape structure was carried out through the landscape metrics (PLAND, LPI, PD and PROX-MN) using the FRAGSTATS program. v. 3.3. The classification achieved overall performance of 0.87% for the kappa index. In the period 1991-2013 the conversion of primary forest to other uses occurred in a ratio of 47.82%, while the degraded forest (17%) and oil palm (11%) had the largest increase in occupancy in 2013. We emphasize that the transition of the primary forest to palm oil was 20% in the 22 years under study, which led to a PD (fragments density index) with considerable amounts, attaining a level from 0.3 to 4.5 (number of patches/ 100 ha). Such conversions define the fragmentation intensity of primary forest. The investigation about the biodiversity response and carbon stocks in different forest cover and land uses was made through a floristic inventory of trees greater than or equal to 2 cm DBH in plots ranging from 1, 500 and 2500 m2 on each forest cover/land use analyzed. Intheall 8.55 ha sampling were registered 5,770 individual trees, distributed in 425 species and 74 families. The primary forest presented carbon stock higher than 80 Mg/ha, while palm oil, pasture and secondary forest presented less than 50 Mg/ha, noting that the oil palm retains impoverished communities of trees, and its tree composition is poorer than the pasture, while the stock of carbon is higher. In this study, in 22 years of the analysis we observed that primary forests covers less than 30% of the landscape, a critical level for biodiversity conservation.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Inferências paleoambientais para o Nordeste da Amazônia Oriental a partir do estudo de registros fósseis e composição isotópica de carbono (d13C) e oxigênio (d18O) em rocha total de carbonatos da Formação Pirabas (PA), Mioceno Inferior
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2015-11-03) FERREIRA, Denys José Xavier; RUIVO, Maria de Lourdes Pinheiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9419564604488031
The Lower Miocene (~23¿16 Ma.) from the Northeastern Eastern Amazon has aroused interest in the scientific community during many decades. It belongs to a geological Epoch characterized by a transition period to the modern world, and marked by many climatic and geological changes, that allowed the establishment of a rich fauna and flora. Within this context, Pirabas Formation is discussed. It is an Lower Miocene unit characterized by great carbonate and silicate sediment deposition, considered one of the most significant paleontological units from Brazilian Cenozoic. Many researches were developed on Pirabas Formation, which allowed the accuracy of reconstruction interpretation of its possible Miocene landscape. Even though there were efforts related to the recuperation of paleoenvironment information from Northeastern Eastern Amazon trough the integration among fossil and sediment data, as well as stratigraphic and facies information, there’s still a lack in researches related to the recuperation of integrated and refined information in paleoenvironment between paleocomunity and geochemical studies. This gap of studies illustrates Pirabas Formation as an important elucidative unit for past scenarios and regional environment evolution, as well as being of great relevance for the comprehension of impacts from global Miocene events in Brazilian territory, specially in northern Atlantic coast. The main objective of this work, of multidisciplinary approach, is to refine the paleoenvironment interferences in Pirabas Formation, related to space disposition of paleoenvironment and the dynamic of sea level in Northern Pará State. For the study, three areas were chosen due to its importance and logistic: Ponta do Castelo (Fortaleza Island), Atalaia Beach (Salinopólis City) and B-17 Mine (Capanema City). The methods used in this research were diversity analysis, dominance and similarity of paleofauna, as well as Correspondence Analysis (CA), from fossil data from Pirabas Formation in order to characterize the paleoenvironment; and the composition of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O), in carbonate whole rocks from the studied unit, to comprehend the paleoenvironment dynamics. The results indicated: 1) the diversity of the registered paleofauna for the areas in Formação Pirabas is apparently related to the type of depositional environment, in which Capanema and Salinópolis are similar for presenting restricted depositional environment, such as lagoon and estuary, and Fortaleza Island indicated better association to the coastal shelf during marine regression; 2) there are predominancy relations between the paleoenvironment according to the temporal representativeness of some facies from the respective depositional cycles in each studied area, as the coast line approaches during marine regression. ; 3) Ponta do Castelo is related to a paleoenvironment of marine/coastal predominance; Atalaia Beach to lagoon with estuary influences; and B-17 Mine to estuary and fluvial; 4) there was a tendency to carbon isotopes (δ13C) impoverishment, indicating the continental influence in the coast during marine regression; 5) and propensity to oxygen isotopes (δ18O) enrichment, reveling influences of the latitude and continent formation effects in the areas during sea retrieve. Trough the results of this research it was possible to understand the space distribution of the paleoenvironment of predominancy (suggested term this work) in Northeastern Eastern Amazon, as well as refine the paleoenvironment interference methods to Pirabas Formation.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise e modelagem do dendezeiro (Elaeis guineenses Jacq.) no nordeste do Pará e implicações para o planejamento de territórios sustentáveis
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-01-29) LAMEIRA, Wanja Janayna de Miranda; TOLEDO, Peter Mann de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3990234183124986; VIEIRA, Ima Célia Guimarães; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3761418169454490
The national policy of biofuels to propose mitigate climate change by reducing CO2 emissions, make use of the carbon market, reduce deforestation and promote socialinclusion, especially in rural areas. In Amazon area this mobilization for palm oil (dendezeiro) is justified by presenting the best soil and climate conditions for this crop and have a huge amount of areas considered "degraded" which are priority for expansion of this crop. The objective of this study was to analyze the conditions of development of the palm oil area ("polo do dendezeiro") in Pará state, through the use of sustainability indicators, the support of GIS tools and the formulation of models of land use change, in order to assist in planning sustainable territories. It is an interdisciplinary research that used complementary methodologies to address the environmental and social dimensions of sustainability of the territory. The results show that: (i) there are differences in levels of development of the municipalities of Acará, Cametá, Concórdia do Pará, Igarapé-Açu, Moju Tailândia and Tomé-Açu in the "polo do dendê". Those municipalities without having sufficient conditions to promote their development, still remain as local and isolated towns; (ii) there was, from 2008 to 2013, an increase of approximately 80,272 ha to 146,611 ha (respectively) in the areas of oil palm, being the preferred location of these monocultures to the metropolitan area of Belém and in Moju Tailândia, Acará and Tomé –Açu munipalities; (iii) the most of thirty-seven municipalities in the "polo do dendê" have development conditions between regular and critical levels that are related to low economic diversification and social and environmental grievances accumulated with the development proposals that disregarded the particular region; (iv) there will be an increase of about 2.110km² oil palm in 2025 if it continues this trend of expansion, not getting worried since it does not represent 5% polo palm oil, but the question to be raised is where occur the changes and under what conditions. This results is useful for territorial planning from a broad debate on sustainable development in all aspects (social, economic and environmental). Territories for palm oil involves a set of actions managed in an integrated approach, able to promote the development of such crop in the region, without compromising conservation of biodiversity efforts, maintaining the ecological processes and improving the socioeconomic conditions. It seems that it is still necessary to go a long way for the sustainable expansion of oil palm occurs in the state of Pará.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Dinâmica de transmissão da malária na Amazônia Legal: determinantes ambientais, epidemiológicos e sua distribuição espaço-temporal
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-04-20) PARENTE, Andressa Tavares; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Malaria is a worldwide parasite, concentrating mainly in tropical and subtropical locations. In Brazil, in the Legal Amazon region, it is characterized as an endemic disease, and it is responsible for more than 99% of the cases in the Nation. Its presence in the region has a multifactorial character, such as socioeconomic, demographic and environmental influences, and also some variables such as temperature, precipitation and deforestation. All of them influence the dynamics of the disease. The aim of this study was to comprehend the dynamics of malaria transmission in the Legal Amazon and the nine States that comprise of this region (Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins), establishing relations between the endemic indicators and the regional climate variability and deforestation rates. This study has 5 chapters. The first chapter contains the introduction, where there is the conceptualization of the theme and of the variables that are analyzed in the study, objective and the presentation of the structure of the following chapters. The second chapter talks about the analysis of the Plan of Intensification of Malaria Control Actions (PIACM) in the Legal Amazon, based in secondary data about malaria in the Legal Amazon from 1981 to 2015, and from 1990 to 2012 (by States). It was developed an intervention analysis model in time series with the use of dummy variables that established the Annual Parasite Index (API) average of occurrence before and after the intervention. The average API (after the intervention) had a 48% reduction between the averages from two time periods. Among the States the effect was differentiated, showing the highest impact in the reduction of Malaria in Mato-Grosso, Tocantins, Roraima and Maranhão. The third chapter analyzed the spatial dynamics of the incidence of malaria in the Legal Amazon, from 2003 to 2012, and its association with deforestation and precipitation using the spatial statistic techniques and also the local and global Moran’s index through the GeoDa Program. The global Moran’s index confirmed the spatial dependence for API, precipitation and deforestation among the States. It was identified the States that presented high priority (Acre, Amazonas and Roraima) and low priority (Maranhão, Tocantins and Pará) for the malaria intervention policies. The fourth chapter talked about the modulation of the precipitation and temperature over the incidence of malaria, in both current and in future climate scenarios, focusing on the seasonality, with different results for the States that are part of the Legal Amazon. The fifth chapter was based on the proposal of a model for malaria and quarterly variables involved in the study (precipitation, deforestation, SST of the oceans), and for the final model it was necessary to exclude the variable deforestation, being more significant for the model to utilize the other variables involved. The prevention policies expressed impacts on the series, which showed a decreasing tendency in the number of cases. The States exert influence among themselves on the pattern of Malaria occurrence, being the relations with the environmental variables differentiated in each State. The results indicate that the effects of the borders in the malaria cases in the western portion of the Legal Amazon has contributed to the values of this endemic disease. It is necessary to develop other strategies in order to control the management settings of malaria in the region and the allocation of resources to fight against this disease.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Indicadores ambientais para funcionalidade ecológica em florestas secundárias de diferentes idades na Amazônia Oriental
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-06-17) MEDEIROS, Priscila Sanjuan de; FERREIRA, Leandro Valle; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8103998556619871
Currently secondary forests occupy about 25% of the Amazon region, and have received attention for ecosystemic services they provide. Beyond the role in carbon sequestration, soil protection and water sources, secondary forests can shelter an enormous diversity. However, public policies directed to the maintenance of the succession process these forests are required, so that they can contribute with maintenance of biodiversity and environmental services. The objective of this work was to evaluate the ecological functionality of secondary forests of different ages, using as indicators that successional dynamics vegetation, seed bank, soil macrofauna and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. The study was developed in areas of primary forest and secondary upland forest of different ages in Caxiuanã National Forest, in the state of Pará. We applied the Chronosequence method which is to the methodology most used for succession studies. 40 areas were selected, with an average size of 0.75 hectares, three areas of primary forest and 37 of secondary forest (capoeira). The time of abandonment these areas varies between 1 and 40 years and all have similar usage history. In each area it was implanted a permanent plot where vegetables individuals were sampled (understory and forest stratum) and where soil samples were taken to evaluate the seed bank and the density of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. In these plots was applied the methodology of Program "Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility" (TSBF) for the sampling of the soil macrofauna and earthworms. Six campaigns were conducted, three in the dry season and three in the rainy season. Were also collected soil moisture data, canopy opening, litter stock, amount of fine roots and soil physicochemical variables (K, P, Na, Ca, Mg, Al, N, pH, sand coarse sand fine , Silt and clay full). For a better compression of the relationships between biotic and abiotic variables data were analyzed and discussed in an approach continues and other categorical, classifying areas into four groups according to age of the secondary forest (stage 1-0 to 10 years; stage 2 – 11 to 25; stage 3 26 to 40; stage 4 primary forest). Vegetation variables and the life forms present in the seed bank showed strong relationship with the age of the secondary forest. The use of macrofauna as bioindicator demonstrated to be an excellent strategy for monitoring of secondary forests, enabling the conservation of these habitats and the correct management of their resources. Already the density and biomass of earthworms have low relationship with the successional process. The arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi showed up to be good indicators in the separation of primary and secondary forest. With this, we have environmental variables of vegetation, seed bank and soil macrofauna that have potential to be used in a quality index of ecosystemic functions in secondary upland forest.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Contribuições das sub-bacias para vazão do rio Amazonas e riscos socioambientais associados a eventos hidrológicos extremos
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-07-01) COUTINHO, Eliane de Castro; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313369423727020
The Amazon Basin is constantly affected by episodes of drought and floods during phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, in addition to Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. These extremes precipitation cause severe changes in the flow and precipitation of the rivers of several sub -basins in temporal and spatial scale. In the Pacific Ocean the phenomena of El Niño and La Niña are the main mechanisms of interannual and decadal oscillations, causing extreme hydrometeorological in the Amazon, both temporal and spatial scale. Spatial variations of hydrological regimes of the Amazon tributaries show that during the occurrence of seasonal peak flows in the left margin of the tributaries are offset by the decrease of flow of the tributaries of the right bank . Thus, the length of the left bank of rainfall is behind two months of the rainy season on the right bank. In addition to this variation the hydrometeorological extremes cause environmental, social and economic to the population, especially those with high vulnerability. The objective of this work is to study the hydrometeorological regime and the water balance of the Amazon Basin, determining its role in the return flow of the Amazon River to the Atlantic Ocean, as well as the socioeconomic and environmental risks associated with hydrometeorological events. For this we used monthly and annual data flow and precipitation in the period 1982-2012 (31 years) along the main Amazon river channel and 8 sub-basins, as well as an analysis of social and economic risks was made in municipalities of the Amazon basin. The precipitation trends over the study period were negative, in the southwestern part (Purus) and central (Madeira) of the Amazon Basin, and positive on the east side (Tapajós and Xingu). The Amazon Southwest sub-basins were negative extremes and extreme events (El Niño) throughout the study period. It is concluded that the flow in the channel of the main river in the Amazon basin depends on variations in the tributaries of the right and left bank. Seasonality is influenced in the dry season by the tributaries of the right bank , for matching the negative trend over the period studied , and the rainy season is influenced by the tributaries of the left bank . All these fluviometric variabilities cause risks to the population. Thus, it can be said that the socioeconomic and environmental risk is more dangerous during flood events, particularly in states with smaller spatial scale (Rondônia and Roraima) , and greater vulnerability occurs in states with higher spatial scale (Pará and Amazonas) this can be explained by the lack of public policy.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Caracterização estrutural e ambiental de bosques de mangue da costa paraense, como subsídios à conservação e qualidade de vida
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-09-02) CARVALHO, Elena Almeida de; JARDIM, Mário Augusto Gonçalves; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9596100367613471
The mangrove ecosystem is among the most productive in the world and in Brazil, occurs along almost the entire coast, from Amapá to Santa Catarina. In this research, the overall objective was to assess the environmental conditions in three mangrove forests of Pará coast, to identify environmental standards to demonstrate their conservation status and relationship with the quality of life of communities. The specific objectives were: to characterize the floristic composition and structure of mangroves; investigate soil-vegetation interrelations; investigate ways to use and environmental perceptions of human populations with mangroves; and conduct an interdisciplinary and systemic analysis of the floristic characteristics, soil and social in mangroves. The areas chosen were the municipalities of Soure (Marajo Island), Salinópolis and Maracanã (Algodoal Island). We used standardized methods to each topic discussed. As for the floristic composition, species were compatible to what the literature for this region and the prevailing environmental conditions. The woods had a high degree of structural development, and in Soure the highest values were recorded. Soil parameters translated a portion of the local and regional environmental scenario that these mangroves are submitted, and showed great influence on the composition, distribution and abundance of plant species present. Human communities showed diversity of uses of mangroves, having been in Salinópolis the largest variety of records. Environmental awareness about the conservation of this ecosystem, proved to be different between communities, and in Algodoal Island, there were records that showed lesser degree of traditional relationship with it. The interdisciplinary analysis involving physical, biological and anthropogenic components, indicated well preserved mangroves in their natural attributes, however, revealed a degree of threat that comes from only economistic visions for regional development. Warns to the need for actions linked to specific scientific research to detect the degree of threat to this ecosystem, and other coastal zone are subject, as well as public policy, environmental education, organization, supervision and practice of establishing legislation for protected areas and mangroves, for the maintenance of these ecosystems, and improving local communities quality of life.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Avaliação da contaminação por mercúrio na foz do Rio Tapajós e exposição ambiental à população de Santarém-PA, Brasil
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-10-06) SOUSA, Enilson da Silva; QUEIROZ, Joaquim Carlos Barbosa; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4383935463464893
In the last decades of the twentieth century, academic work focused on discussion of the mercury problem in the Brazilian Amazon pointed to a mercury contamination of anthropogenic origin, especially from artisanal gold mining prospecting activities. In the mid-1990s and early years of this century, with the advancement of research in the field of geochemistry focused on this discussion, point to a possible geogenic origin of this contamination, and environmental exposure of the local population would be related to protein intake of animal origin, from the fish and work activities. The aim of this study is to analyze the speciation of Hg and methylmercury in soil and particulate matter in the mouth of the Tapajós River, and perception, mobilization capacity and political action on contamination by this metal of the population of Santarém; Elaborate mercury maps from spatially distributed data using up geostatistics to infer results for the location and risk of contamination of the metal along the mouth of the Tapajós River, Santarém-Pa.; and maps of contamination probability that this metal, which enabled the classification and quantification of contaminated areas for different confidence levels in and around the mouth of the Tapajós River; and quantify and evaluate the total mercury concentrations in water and particulate matter and hypotheses about the origin of this contamination in the Tapajos bay. The methodological procedures included the making location maps, georeferencing of points of collection and identification of the search area; Application Integrated Questionnaires for Measuring Social Capital Index - SC-IQ, proposed by the World Bank; Maps of the quantify the mercury concentrations in the study area and prepare maps of the spatial distribution of concentrations; and maps of the spatial distribution of concentrations and use of geostatistics (factorial kriging), which enabled the development of maps at different scales of variability associated with anthropogenic or geogenic origin activities. Two campaigns one in July and December 2014, with 37 and 45 sampling points in each were conducted. The results point to a possible contamination of the area at some points, with indexes to the top of the type recommended by the resolution n. 357/2005, of CONAMA. The results of the factorial kriging point to the possibility that mercury concentrations are associated with the natural environment itself, although it may have contributions due to human activity such as mining and industrial activities in the basin.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
O Lago Grande do Curuai: história fundiária, usos da terra e relações de poder numa área de transição várzea-terra firme na Amazônia
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2016-12-07) FOLHES, Ricardo Theophilo; TOURNEAU, François-Michel Le; SANTOS JÚNIOR, Roberto Araújo de Oliveira; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9355107718329833
The aim of this study is to understand the role of the social and environmental order influenced the peopling, land appropriation and the seasonal use of natural resources between floodplains (várzea) and firm land (terra firme) ecosystems in the Brazilian Amazon. I follow an historical and ethnographical approach to examine how social practices and the local power relations influenced the interrelated dynamic between social life and water movements (floods and droughts). The study area is Lago Grande, located in the city of Santarem, Pará State bordering the towns of Óbidos and Juruti. The main question is to investigate if power relations among social groups established and inherited during the colonial living in Lago Grande region are still operating in current times, and how this situation affects the control of transhumance between várzea and terra firme ecosystems. I conclude that the Amazon floodplains are still controlled by local elites, represented by land and livestock owners. The local elite established their socio-political power during colonial times, dominating an increasing process of entering from várzea to terra firme areas (i.e. deforestation). Since 1950, the main economical activity responsible for the expansion of land use from várzea to terra firme was cattle raising through transhumance between both ecosystems. Transumance has received a specific attention in this study, for it is among the main factors encouraging the circulation of local population between várzea and terra firme environments. From 1970‘s, large farmers started the transhumance which was later followed by smaller farmers, and intensified through the 1990‘s. Cattle ranching builds on three local practices which promote transhumance: ―societies‖, ―permissions‖ and land rentals (arrendamentos). A joint analysis allowed me to demonstrate that ―societies‖ between large and small farmers sustain the cattle ranching growth. In 2005, an Agro-extractivist Settlement was created (PAE Lago Grande) to favor land distribution and better economical opportunities among local populations. Though, the territorial unit included terra firme but not the areas of the várzea ecosystem, vital for the local economy part of the year. Additionally, the PAE also did not alter the land tenure, keeping the same historically constructed power structures it aimed to deconstruct.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Impactos dos anos climáticos extremos no rendimento da lavoura temporária de mandioca na região rural da metrópole de Belém – Pará
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-01-31) SOUZA, Paulo Fernando de Souza; SOUZA, Everaldo Barreiros de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6257794694839685
Extremes climatic patterns negatively impact agriculture in Brazil and, as a result, cause problems for rural communities that are highly dependent on natural resources, in particular the state of Pará. Therefore, it is of fundamental importance to study the cassava farming (Manihot esculenta Crantz) in face of future climatic risks, because Pará is the largest national producer. The objective of this study was to analyze the modulation of the climatic mechanisms of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans on the pluviometric regime considering the municipal scale of the Rural Region of the Metropolis of Belém (RRB), in northeastern Pará, as well as to detect the relations between precipitation and productivity or yield of temporary cassava farming from 1990 to 2014 (25 years), including the analysis of impacts of extreme climatic years. The work was divided into three parts: the first analyzed the influence of climatic extremes such as El Niño, La Niña, North and South Gradient on RRB precipitation, using the percentiles technique; In the second part, Spearman correlations were calculated between the precipitation and the cassava yield and the results showed an inhomogeneous behavior throughout the region, i.e., there are municipalities that respond directly or indirectly to the pluviometric regime. In this analysis, the annual precipitation showed a better relationship with cassava yield, whose planting system occurs at two moments during the year (summer and winter plantings). In the third part, the spatial data exploratory spatial analysis technique was applied, which revealed the need to consider the spatial component in the evaluation of the relations between regional climate x agriculture.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Castanhal nativo da Floresta Nacional do Tapajós: atributos edáficos, produção de serapilheira e perfil socioeconômico dos extrativistas
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-08-07) GUERREIRO, Quêzia Leandro de Moura; RUIVO, Maria de Lourdes Pinheiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9419564604488031
The seed Brazil nuts has high food value and is considered one of the main extractive products of the export zone of the northern region of Brazil. The study of the ecological and biological aspects of Brazil nuts (Bertholletia excelsa) has been the objective of many studies, but the amount of research that approach the social and environmental variables related to the species is incipient. In this context, the present thesis sought to evaluate the edaphic attributes that most influence in plant development and litter production in the native castanhal area of the Tapajós National Forest (Tapajós FLONA), in addition to studying the socioeconomic factors and management practices, collection and the production of extractivists of Brazil nuts that reside in this area. The presentation of the obtained results was exposed in three chapters: the first chapter includes a geostatistical analysis of the physical-chemical factors of the soil; the second presents an estimate of the litter production in relation to the monthly average of the maximum temperature and the monthly totals of precipitation and insolation; and the third shows an analysis of the economic, social and management aspects of the Brazil nuts collectors that work in the Tapajós FLONA. The field samples were performed in a permanent 300 m x 300 m portion of the MapCast project, installed at km 84 of the Tapajós FLONA. The soil sample collections for the physico-chemical analyzes followed the recommendations described in the "Manual of laboratory: soil, water, plant nutrition, animal nutrition and food" of Embrapa, as well as the procedures for analytical determinations. For the litter collection, 12 containers were used in circular format and the deposited material was collected every 30 days and separated into classes (leaves, flowers and fruits, woody, miscellaneous). Socioeconomic, production and the form of extraction data of Brazil nuts were obtained through a structured interview conducted with 24 extractivists from the region. By Simple Kriging it was possible to estimate the concentration of nutrients studied for the entire area of the sample grid. The densification of Brazil nut trees was identified in areas with higher silt and clay values and lower values for macroporosity, pH, phosphorus, zinc and copper. Leaf production ranged from 169.9 to 965.6 kg ha-1 month-1, wood between 26.7 and 501.3 kg ha-1 month-1 and flowers and fruits between 0.6 and 19.6 kg ha-1 month-1. The wood and flowers and fruit classes presented no significant variation (p> 0.05) and no significant correlation with any meteorological variable. The three environmental variables analyzed explain 40.7% of the temporal variability of litter production. In all, 39 Brazil nuts extractivists were recorded. Most of these have a low level of education and are covered by the “Bolsa Família Program”. The production varied significantly between the 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 harvests, and extraction practices are traditional. The Geostatistical Analysis allowed the knowledge of the current spatial distribution of the physical and chemical attributes of the soil in the studied area, which will serve as a basis of comparison for future evaluations in the same place and also to help understand environmental aspects in areas with agglomerations of Brazil nuts. The environmental variables temperature and insolation influence leaf production and total litter production in native castanhal area. The management practices of the castanhal and the collection and processing of the seeds applied by the extractivists of the studied communities do not present any innovation in relation to the traditional and rudimentary practices already informed in the literature. The variation between the harvests was influenced by the reduction of rains (caused by an event of El Niño installed in 2015) and by the frequent burned, according to the perception of the interviewees.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Efeitos de intervenções técnico-produtivas para a sustentabilidade do uso da terra em agroecossistemas familiares no território do Baixo Tocantins, PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-09-28) SIMÕES, Lourdes Henchen Ritter; RUIVO, Maria de Lourdes Pinheiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9419564604488031
The study deals with the sustainability of land use in family agroecosystems located in the municipalities of Cametá (communities Ajó and Inacha) and Moju (PA Calmaria II, communities of São José and Água Preta), belonging to the territory of Low Tocantins, state of PA, proposing to compare the main effects resulting from two modes of interventions in the technical-productive systems. The two interventions were established proposing innovations and improvements for sustainable development, the first in Cametá, promoted by "networks of multiplier farmers" with proposals for agroecological use and management and the second in Moju refers to programs to encourage palm oil plantation.The main focus of the study is based on the following questions: what are the main effects on sustainability that the innovations in land management and sustainable development introduced by the National Program for the Production and Use of Biodiesel (PNPB) on the one hand and Networks of multiplier farmers, with agroecological management proposals on the other, lead to family agroecosystems? Have these interventions provided improvements with sustainability? The research hypothesis suggests that the technical-productive innovations promoted in family agroecosystems by the multiplier farmers are more sustainable. The general objective is to analyze the main effects of technical-productive interventions in land use, on the sustainability of family agro-ecosystems. The specific objectives are to verify if the interventions provided improvements with socio-environmental quality; to evaluate comparatively the quality of the soil in systems of use of familiar agro-ecosystems, that had differentiated technical-productive interventions; and to distinguish the main modes of use practiced in the familiar agroecosystems in order to elucidate their relations with the biophysical environment and with the different ways of managing the fertility of the environment. For the development of other companies in other regions in Cametá: Caripi, with dry land ecosystem and Cupijó, with dry land ecosystems and floodplains. The methodological procedures used were surveys with semi-structured forms and description and soil collect for laboratory analysis. The results obtained from four dimensions indicators of sustainability showed that the interventions, to a certain extent, reached the objectives, but many problems were observed, such as those that reflect a relationship between farmers and technicians, that still can not surpass the conception of "transmission of knowledge and technology", in the case of the intervention in Calmaria II. In the communities of Ajó and Inacha, the most determining reasons for some differences would be the assiduity and intensity of technical assistance attributed more to Ajó; The fact that these family agroecosystems have availability of a diversified biophysical environment (dry land and foodplain), allowing greater variation in production systems; and the consequent reduction of the use of fire. In the communities of São José and Água Preta the most significant cause of the distinctions between them would be that São José has a higher income, due to the period of the palm harvest, which coincides with that of the Água Preta (neighboring community to the large palm oil plantations. This fact guarantees a better price of the production to São José. This difference in the harvest and off-season months would be related to the water supply, available to the culture in São José, during the rainy season, caused the main differences between the two types of agro-ecosystems are that they do not have the same characteristics as the biophysical environment, and that there are different levels of satisfaction with the oil palm. Environment are determined by the management of the fertility of the environment of each one, constituting the differentiation between the production systems in each specific environment. The data indicated that, according to the environments, farmers take advantage of the different potentialities of use, adapting the ways of managing the fertility of the natural environment. The soil attributes that were considered significant to evaluate sustainability indicate that the land uses studied presented little expressive differences. The biophysical environment was determinant for some types to stand out positively. By the pedological analysis of Ajó locality (SAF) it is noticeable that their soils are more naturally enriched in exchangeable bases (K+, Ca2+, Mg2+). In São José, some physical factors are better, because the soils retain water for a longer time, making this available to the palm oil tree for a longer period in the dry season.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Os efeitos das políticas públicas de desenvolvimento socioeconômico na zona costeira do nordeste paraense: expansão rodoviária, urbanização e atividade turística
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-10-27) ALMEIDA, Adrielson Furtado; JARDIM, Mário Augusto Gonçalves; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9596100367613471
The development model of the Brazilian government from the 1960s onwards promoted the expansion of road, urbanization, circulation of capital and the development of new markets, such as tourism, in the coastal zone of the northeast of Pará. This work aimed to analyze the changes in the relationship between environmental, economic and social aspects resulting from public policies of socioeconomic development on the beaches of Crispim (Marapanim), Atalaia (Salinópolis) and Ajuruteua (Bragança), from the 1960’s. Specifically it sought to: a) Identify the main changes that occurred in the relationship between the environmental, economic and social aspects resulting from the public policies of socioeconomic development from 60’ies; B) to evaluate socioeconomic, environmental, urban and tourist indicators on the beaches of Crispim (Marapanim), Atalaia (Salinópolis) and Ajuruteua (Bragança) and, c) to evaluate the local community's performance in the process of consolidating policies for socioeconomic development and, guarantee of environmental standards. A standardized and adequate methodology was used for each topic. The main changes were the loss of the restinga vegetation and dunes for the installation of trade markets and second residences (environmental), replacement of fishing spaces for urbanization(social) and the replacement of traditional fishing activities for tourism (economic). Regarding the indicators, the three areas under study have an average (IDH-M). The main threats and impacts that affect the state of the environment that demand responses by public policies identified by the PIER Matrix were: excessive use and contamination of the water table, absence of public services and soil pollution, occupation of PPAs and erosion Coastal areas. Analyzing the tourism indicators (ICT), Atalaia Beach presented greater tourist competitiveness in relation to the other beaches studied. The work of the local community presents a certain mobilization, although there is conflict and divergences of interest that makes it difficult for the community to act, in which its absence causes the misdirection of public policies. The use and inappropriate occupation of space are the main causes of the current problematic situations identified by the survey research and analysis of socioeconomic, urban and tourist development indicators. It is essential that the local community act in public policies, together with public and private managers, so that together they plan and manage a different future scenario for which the reality is going.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Índices de desenvolvimento sustentável aplicados à Amazônia Legal como subsídios a políticas de combate ao desmatamento
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-11-30) VALE, Francinelli de Angeli Francisco do; VIERA, Ima Célia Guimarães; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3761418169454490; TOLEDO, Peter Mann de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3990234183124986
The history of land use and occupation in the Legal Amazon, intensive deforestation in the Deforestation Arc region and the current great concern with sustainable development has led to the adoption of measures that assess current levels of sustainability at local and regional scales. Besides, such actions can verify historically the relationship of these levels with the adopted public policies that advocate social, economic, institutional and environmental changes. The use of sustainability indicators has been envisioned as an instrument that contributes to making the concept of sustainability more objective, while at the same time it has been useful for the planning, monitoring and evaluation stages of public policies in several areas. In this work, three different methodologies were adopted, the Sustainable Development Index (IDS), Sustainability Barometer (BS) and the new Municipal Index to Combat Deforestation (IMCD). All information had the objective to analyze the sustainability level of the states of Amazônia Legal and the priority and monitored municipalities of the state of Pará. This study focused on the actions of the federal plan (Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in Amazonia - PPCDAm) and the state policy to curb deforestation through the Green Municipalities Program. The results indicate that only the state of Roraima was classified with acceptable performance of the IDS, while Maranhão presented critical level and the other states remained in the alert range; for the municipalities according to BS, only Altamira and Novo Progresso remained in the intermediate sustainability class for the two years analyzed, but there was progress in the deforestation control, comparing the year 2000 to 2010. Regarding the IMCD, Paragominas stands out with high value and the only one to fulfill all the goals of the PMV and PPCDAm, while Concordia do Pará, Garrafão do Norte and Aurora do Pará performed critically and were not effective in incorporating environmental management instruments to control deforestation. The tools used were useful and easy to use for the evaluation of sustainability. Therefore, it is recommended that this type of analysis be developed regularly so that the performance of the states and municipalities of the legal Amazon can be monitored.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Mudanças climáticas e a resiliência da floresta amazônica ao longo do tempo e espaço
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-12-01) ANJOS, Luciano Jorge Serejo dos; COHEN, Marcelo Cancela Lisboa; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8809787145146228; TOLEDO, Peter Mann de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3990234183124986
The climate is changing fast, and we still do not know for sure what the consequences will be and the magnitude of the changes in the Earth's most biodiverse terrestrial ecosystem, the Amazon rainforest. To overcome such a scientific limitation, here we conceive and execute a four-fold innovative methodological structure, with the necessary interdisciplinary theoretical robustness. Such methods are capable of (1) measuring, and mapping ecosystem resilience at large scales; (2) assess the intrinsic vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change; (3) predict catastrophic transition events between the Amazon rainforest and savannas; and (4) to analyze the effects of past climate change in a quantitative and qualitative way on the ecosystems of the Amazon Basin. Our results show that forest is intrinsically more vulnerable to climate change in the near future than other terrestrial ecosystems. Also, there is highly probable chance that ongoing climate changes will suddenly trigger catastrophic transitional events to other stable states with lower plant cover density. Our findings indicate that such transitional regimes were frequent due to the climatic oscillations of the past over the last 22,000 years. Indeed, these paleobiogeographic events contributed to the ecological and evolutionary structuring of the Amazonian biota as we know it today. However, today's anthropogenic forcing, characterized by large-scale and high rates of transformations, has a disproportionate weight in the historical balance and may lead, in the near future, to an event of massive extinction of Amazonian biodiversity.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Variabilidade interanual dos eventos extremos e a sua percepção pela comunidade de Santa Maria de Sirituba - PA
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2017-12-13) CÂMARA, Renata Kelen Cardoso; PIMENTEL, Marcia Aparecida da Silva; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3994635795557609; ROCHA, Edson José Paulino da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313369423727020
The perception of extreme events by man interferes in the process of adaptation to the influence of extreme climatic variability. The perception approach constitutes an important tool for the understanding of the forms of relationship between individuals or societies with the environment in which they live. Considering the interference of extreme precipitation in socioeconomic and environmental activities and the relationship in the adaptation process, this study aimed to analyze the perception of riparian communities regarding the impacts of extreme events on their social, economic and environmental activities. The research contemplates the approach of extreme precipitating events in the Santa Maria Rio Sirituba -PA community, located in the eastern region of the Amazon. The study utilized time series of monthly precipitation, surface temperature anomaly of the Niño 3.4 region and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) North and South Atlantic basin from 01/01/1979 to 12/31/2015; and local subjective aspects through semi-structured questionnaires formulated according to the classification of Marconi and Lakatos (2003) and the proposal by Whyte (1977). The classification of extreme events was categorized by the Quantis technique and related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena both in its positive phase (El Niño) and in the negative phase (La Niña) and the Atlantic Dipole (ADP); the degree of perception was obtained through the method of the hierarchical analysis process. The results of the study indicated that extreme precipitation may be associated with years of ENSO events and ADP patterns, with ENSO events being characterized by the reduction and increase of rainfall in the study area; it was observed that the ADP pattern may favor or disfavor the accumulated rainfall, but its influences are related to the intensity of the ENSO phenomena. In the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), three levels of hierarchy were defined as level 1: Perception, that is, the objective of the hierarchy; level 2 are the decision criteria: leisure (C1), work (C2) and health (C3) and level 3 the determining factors: air temperature (A1), wind (A2), tide (A3) and rain (A4). Through the standard matrix of criteria and local average priorities it was observed that criterion C2 has the highest degree of importance with relative weight (WR) of 48.99%, then the criterion C3 with WR of 45.07% and lastly the criterion C1 with a lower degree of importance with WR of 5.94%. The Global Priority (GP) obtained indicated the alternative A4 with the highest noticeable degree of weather and climate for the rivers with GP of 37.94%, then the alternatives A3, A2 and A1, with GP of 31.41%, 22.86% and 7.79%, respectively. Finally, the results showed that the rivers have a high perception of the impacts of the extreme precipitating events on the socioeconomic and environmental activities, confirmed in the AHP technique the order of importance obtained in the GP. Thus the study is relevant in the process of elaborating adaptation strategies to extreme precipitating events.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Análise dos fluxos turbulentos de CO2 e energia, associada a percepção dos serviços ecossistêmicos em um manguezal amazônico
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-04-30) FREIRE, Antonio Sérgio Cunha; VITORINO, Maria Isabel; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4813399912998401
This interdisciplinary work proposal for the PhD in environmental sciences, in the field of physical climate research, investigated the turbulent flows of CO2 and energy in the mangrove forest at the Cuiarana experimental site, in the city of Salinópolis, Pará, under the influence of local atmospheric variability during the year 2015. Also, within this interdisciplinary perspective, the relationship between the local community and the forest surrounding the study area was also studied. In order to collect the turbulent data, a micrometeorological tower was installed in the mangrove, with high frequency sensors that collected the data of the atmospheric variables above the forest canopy. The meteorological data was collected from the UFRA tower, located 400m from the mangrove tower. For the social investigations, a case study was carried out based on the perception of the decision-makers, who occupy leadership positions in several organizational structures in the city of Salinópolis and in the town of Cuiarana, on the perception of the ecosystem services generated by the ecosystem of mangrove. It was verified that in the Cuiarana mangrove, in the year 2015, under ENOS, there was a reduction of precipitation in the region where it rained only 63.7% of the expected climatological variable. As for the sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat flux in the mangrove, it was observed that the maximum values for both variables were recorded at 14h, with LE peak in the rainy season and H in the less rainy season. In the analysis of the seasonal CO2 flow, it was verified that the highest magnitudes of absorption occurred in the rainy season, with a peak of absorption at 13h with -13.56 μmol.m2, whereas in the less rainy period, absorption peak was recorded of CO2 at 13h with -8.95 μmol.m2. Regarding the perception of the local leadership within the ecosystem services generated by the mangrove, it was noted that the valuation of these goods and services was considered by the interviewees, where direct use services such as habitation, fishing, generation of work, and income are mentioned as fundamental factors for the well-being of the riverside population. It was noticed from accounts of the fishermen that the transmission of knowledge occurs generation to generation with the purpose of maintaining the traditional labor practices and conservation of the mangrove.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Avaliação do processo de cobertura da terra no entorno de usinas hidrelétricas na Amazônia brasileira: a evolução da UHE de Tucuruí
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-05-16) MONTOYA, Andrés Danilo Velástegui; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594
The analysis of the environmental impacts produced by the construction of megaprojects in the Amazonia has been the field of study of several researches. In this work, the object of study was the Tucuruí hydroelectric power plant, built in the state of Pará. Since it is a strategic region for the expansion of the capacity of hydroelectric power generation of Brazil, it has been the focus of several analysis approaches aimed at subsidizing the best characterization of future scenarios. The model of land cover change was discussed in the riparian areas and in the surroundings of the reservoirs, motivated by the modification of the dynamics of the natural ecosystems. This phenomenon is caused by the extensive reservoirs and migratory aspects, in an already consolidated situation. It was carried out a multitemporal mapping and analysis of Landsat satellite images of the representative dates of the different stages of construction, inauguration, expansion and current scenario of the hydroelectric power plant. It was also sought to verify if the increase of the anthropic areas, in the municipalities directly affected by the reservoir, have a compensatory role in the improvement of the socioeconomic conditions in the region. In fact, these regions absorb the social, economic and environmental costs associated with the construction and operation of the plants, while the energy benefits are distributed to other regions of the country. It is hoped, therefore, to contribute with a critical evaluation of the new hydroelectric plans, predicting the possible environmental and social impacts of the project, given the history of events already observed in the Tucuruí hydroelectric power plant. Also, to contribute to the debate on elements that induce "regional development", thus subsidizing public management, the private sector and the academic community, regarding the formulation and implementation of actions aimed at the improvement of life quality in these localities.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Qualidade das águas superficiais e subterrâneas das microbacias do Cumaru e São João, nordeste paraense.
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-08-31) MENEZES, Luciana Gonçalves Creão de; FIGUEIREDO, Ricardo de Oliveira; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2388049759708934; http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0933-4854; LIMA, Aline Maria Meiguins de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6572852379381594; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0594-0187
The present study aimed to characterize the quality of surface and underground waters of the watersheds of the Cumaru and São João streams, through the most important physical-chemical and biological parameters, relating the results to the use and occupation of the soil in the region. For water monitoring, 6 similar land use systems were selected for the two microbasins, being fallow vegetation, Agroforestry System (SAF), planting area prepared for slash and burn, planting area prepared for cut and crunch, Pasture and Vegetation Ripary. In these, three surface water collection stations were established in the Cumaru stream micro-basin and four stations in the São João stream micro-basin, as well as thirty (30) observation wells (piezometers) were drilled. The variables analyzed were: Precipitation, temperature, flow, pH, EC, turbidity, DO, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl-, NO3-, PO43-, SO42-, DOC, DIC, TN, Thermotolerant coliforms and OBD. Collections were carried out monthly. Subsequently, 97 socio-environmental questionnaires were applied to communities living in the two microbasins. The main results obtained revealed that the waters of the two studied watersheds are characterized as acid and have low dissolution of inorganic ions, especially Cl- and Na+ ions, which presented the highest concentrations observed throughout the study, characterizing them predominantly as Sodium Chlorinated and Chlorinated Mixed. The springs were less impacted in relation to the other stretches in the two microbasins, in the order NasSJ > NasC. The practice of preparing the soil based on the burning of the area, is notably, one of the main sources of changes in water quality, followed by the removal of fragments of secondary vegetation for implantation of pastures and use of water for other purposes (recreation and dumping of domestic sewage). For the surface waters of the ICU microbasin, the AF/ACP technique generated three components (84.22%), being Nutritional (DOC, DIC, Na+, NH4+, Ca2+, Cl- and PO43-), biological (thermotolerant coliforms) and physicochemical (pH, CE and DO). For the surface waters of the ISJ microbasin, the technique generated two components (85.08%), being Nutritional (Na+, NH4+, Ca2+, Cl- and PO43-) and biological (thermotolerant coliforms). The perception of the interviewed communities regarding the environmental quality of the area is revealed to be vulnerable, representing potential impacts on the health of residents, and on the environment in which they live.
Acesso aberto (Open Access)
Simulação da resposta hidrológica à mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra em uma bacia hidrográfica no leste da Amazônia
(Universidade Federal do Pará, 2018-10-05) FERREIRA JÚNIOR, Pedro Pereira; SOLER, Luciana de Sousa; SOUSA, Adriano Marlisom Leão de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4371199443425884
The loss of vegetation in the Amazon has been occurring for some decades and the growth of annual deforestation rates is noticeable. The agricultural expansion is indicated as a new agent in this dynamic by the overthrow of the vegetation for the cattle raising and later implantation of mechanized agriculture. This work explored the potential relationships between hydrological variability and landscape organization in the Uraim River Basin at Northeast of Pará. The possible effects of land use and land cover changes effect on streamflow were investigated from Soil hydrological modeling and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) combined with the projections of future scenarios generated by the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent (CLUE-S), the SWAT efficiency was also evaluated in simulating the monthly streamflow when fed by evapotranspiration (ET) of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). The results showed the skill of SEBAL to estimate ET under different land use and land cover identified in the watershed. The algorithm presented overestimations, but good precision with the values measured in the field, having greater accuracy in the dry season and using average eight days MODIS images. The SWAT model streamflow simulations were better when ET estimated by SEBAL were applied, which were confirmed by reduction in absolute and relative errors and by the efficient calibration of the most sensitive parameters. The modeling was considered from good to very good according to the NSE, RSR and PBIAS coefficients found. Almost all the variables used in CLUE-S modeling forced land use and land cover changes, mainly biophysical parameters. The projected scenarios indicate agricultural expansion for the northwestern sector of the watershed and greater concentration in the southwest portion. Agricultural areas will increase its by 93.2 km2, corresponding to 13.4% of watershed until 2034, which indicate to a reduction of 34.4% in the streamflow to dry season and an increase of 38.6% in the rainy season. The results suggest that climate change may have played a more pronounced role in the hydrological pattern than the very land use and land cover change projected by CLUE-S. It is intended, therefore, to provide subsidies for environmental monitoring, informing about necessary interventions, targeting the decision-making regarding the sustainable use of water resources.